人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(2)：41-60,20.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.014
现金补贴的预期生育效果估计
The Expected Fertility Effects of Cash Subsidies:A Quasi-experimental Research Based on Discrete Choice Model with Large Number Alternatives
摘要
Abstract
The lack of clear policy design basis has greatly restricted the development process of cash subsidy policies.To address the questions of"how much subsidy should be provided and what way is more effective",this study estimates the discrete choice rates of a large number of schemes based on the point process and measure theory within the framework of choice experiments,and further derives the relationship between subsidy schemes and the parity progression ratio fertility rate through parity-specific analysis.The analysis of the data from the"2022 Xiamen Active Fertility Policy Demand Survey"reveals that:1)One-child families are the most responsive to subsidy policy with the upper limit of the choice rate reaching 99.5%.However,the maximum choice rate for two-child subsidy schemes is 36.5%,and that for three-child and above subsidy schemes is only 4.7%.Notably,all these schemes only take effect when the subsidy amount exceeds the minimum threshold.2)The total subsidy amount does not have a decisive impact on the scheme choice rate.Insteadly,a higher choice rate can only be achieved through careful selection of the combination of various subsidies.3)There are differences in the demand for subsidy schemes among families by parity.For one-child subsidy schemes,there are two optimal models:a low-level model where the optimal scheme is a one-time subsidy and a childcare subsidy as well as a high-level model where the optimal scheme is a one-time subsidy plus a child-rearing subsidy.The optimal method for two-child subsidies is full rearing subsidies,while the optimal subsidy scheme for three-child and above is a combination of three types of subsidies.4)The expected scheme choice rate can serve as a basis for policy design.Formulating the subsidy level and method for each parity in accordance with the scheme choice rate corresponding to the parity progression ratio is more in line with the preferences of family policies.关键词
育儿补贴/总和生育率/离散选择模型/选择实验法/孩次递进比Key words
childbirth subsidy/total fertility rate/discrete choice model/choice experiment method/parity progression ratio分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
任锋,邱睿婕,吴欣格..现金补贴的预期生育效果估计[J].人口与经济,2026,47(2):41-60,20.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"数智时代生育教育助推生育决策的实现路径及效应研究"(25BRK008). （25BRK008）
