中国生态农业学报（中英文）2026，Vol.34Issue(3)：559-572,14.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20250338
气候变化对河南省粮食产量的影响及气候生产潜力趋势分析
Impacts of climate change on grain yield and analysis of climatic potential productivity trends in Henan Province
摘要
Abstract
Global warming has led to frequent extreme events in China,including high temperatures,droughts,and heavy rainfall,severely affecting sustainable socioeconomic development.Agriculture,as a highly climate sensitive sector,is particularly affected.Henan Province,a major grain-producing region in China,has been significantly affected by climate change in terms of grain produc-tion.This study analyzed meteorological data from a 1 km resolution dataset of China(1980-2020)and future precipitation and annu-al mean temperature projections from three CMIP6 climate models.Using trend,mutation,and sensitivity analyses,this study invest-igated the characteristics of regional climate change and its impacts on grain yield and climatic potential productivity(CPP).The res-ults showed that 1)from 1980 to 2020,the annual mean temperature in Henan Province increased significantly at a rate of 0.038 ℃·a-1(P＜0.01).Annual precipitation showed a non-significant upward trend of 0.50 mm·a-1,demonstrating a warming and humidifying trend in the climate of Henan Province.Spatially,the annual mean temperature increases were relatively uniform across regions,while southern Henan Province had the highest annual precipitation and central Henan Province experienced the fastest decline in sunshine duration.2)From 1980 to 2020,the grain yield increased significantly.However,the climatic yield exhibited periodic fluc-tuations and was strongly influenced by droughts and floods.The continuous progress in technology has offset the negative impacts of climatic factors to a certain extent.The volatility of climatic yield and its correlation with climatic factors showed spatial heterogen-eity in different regions,influenced by topographical and irrigation conditions.3)CPP,estimated using the Thomthwaite Memorial model,was found to fluctuate between 10462 and 13921 kg·hm-2,with an average value of 12 368 kg·hm-2.Its annual increasing trend of 18.99 kg·hm-2·a-1 was not significant.Precipitation was identified as the dominant climatic factor influencing CPP.4)Future projections under all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-1.9,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)indicated non-significant increases in CPP from 2030 to 2060 in Henan Province.A low radiative forcing scenario(SSP 1-1.9)was found to present more favor-able climatic conditions for crop growth.5)The climatic resource use efficiency in Henan Province was steadily increasing but re-mained at less than 40％,suggesting that current grain yield has not yet reached the ceiling of climatic potential.To enhance resili-ence against drought and flood disasters,we recommend maintaining the current land use pattern,optimizing farming practices based on crop characteristics,systematically regulating farmland irrigation,and improving disaster prevention and control capacities.关键词
河南省/气候变化特征/粮食生产/气候产量/气候生产潜力/CMIP6Key words
Henan Province/climate change characteristics/grain production/climate yield/climatic potential productivity/CMIP6分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
胡雅婷,王会肖,于龙哉,崔文第,赵茹欣..气候变化对河南省粮食产量的影响及气候生产潜力趋势分析[J].中国生态农业学报（中英文）,2026,34(3):559-572,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52279006)资助 This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52279006). （52279006）
