石油石化绿色低碳2026，Vol.11Issue(1)：11-15,5.DOI:10.20131/j.cnki.syshlsdt.20260205.002
我国石化行业发展困境及"十五五"趋势展望
Current Development Status and 15th Five-Year Plan Trend Prospects of China's Petrochemical Industry
隋谨伊 1吕晓东 1肖冰 1王丽敏 1袁学玲1
作者信息
- 1. 中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京 100029
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the expansion of domestic petrochemical production capacity accelerated further,with newly added ethylene capacity reaching nearly 30 million metric tons annually,doubling the scale added during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.However,the impact of the pandemic,combined with adjustments in the real estate sector and deteriorating external trade conditions,led to domestic petrochemical product consumption significantly underperforming relative to macroeconomic growth and expected demand.The market exhibited a pattern of"volume growth without corresponding profit growth"and even periodic oversupply,putting pressure on the overall profitability of the industry and sustaining a downturn in performance.During the 15th Five-Year Plan period,capacity expansion has not slowed significantly,while consumption faces challenges due to factors such as a declining demographic dividend and slowing investment growth.Overall,during the 15th Five-Year Plan period,China's petrochemical industry will enter a critical transition phase from"scale expansion"to"high-quality development".The domestic market will also shift from"total volume growth"to cost competition and high-end breakthroughs.关键词
石化行业/供需失衡/产能过剩/高端化转型/高质量发展/结构性调整/绿色低碳/技术创新Key words
petrochemical industry/supply-demand imbalance/overcapacity/high-end transformation/high-quality development/structural adjustment/green and low-carbon/technological innovation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
隋谨伊,吕晓东,肖冰,王丽敏,袁学玲..我国石化行业发展困境及"十五五"趋势展望[J].石油石化绿色低碳,2026,11(1):11-15,5.
