石油石化绿色低碳2026，Vol.11Issue(1)：34-39,65,7.DOI:10.20131/j.cnki.syshlsdt.20260313.003
"十五五"我国航煤发展特征与转型趋势分析
Development Characteristics and Transition Trends of China's Aviation Fuel Market During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period
马晓丹1
作者信息
- 1. 中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京 100029
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Facing the fundamental shift in the consumption structure of the domestic refined oil market and the emission reduction pressures on the international aviation industry,exploring the inherent contradiction between increasing aviation fuel production in China's refining industry and the green and low-carbon transition of the aviation sector is of great significance for coordinating energy security with the"dual carbon"goals.Based on supply and demand data for the domestic aviation fuel market during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plan periods,this paper systematically analyzes the driving mechanisms behind refineries'shift from a gasoline and diesel surplus to increasing aviation fuel production.By integrating the relevant policy frameworks of the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)and major economies,it assesses the external constraints imposed by international emission reduction rules on China's aviation fuel industry,further revealing the structural contradiction between increased refinery production and the green transition,along with its formation mechanism.The research indicates that:Upgraded resident consumption and the recovery of air transport have driven a full recovery in aviation fuel consumption,which has entered a stable growth trajectory.The contraction in gasoline and diesel consumption forces refineries to use aviation fuel as a strategic product for capacity adjustment.International mandatory SAF blending policies exert dual pressure on China through cost impacts and industrial impetus.However,the domestic SAF industrialization faces triple constraints:uneven technological maturity,high costs,and a lack of market mechanisms.A"structural time lag"exists between increased refinery production of aviation fuel and the aviation industry's green transition—the capacity lock-in effect at refineries and the cross-sectoral transfer of transition pressure from road transport lead the aviation industry to passively absorb residual fossil fuel capacity,while the scale effect of conventional aviation fuel further compresses the market space for SAF.A coordinated development framework of"incremental supply assurance and stock quality improvement"is proposed.In the short term,refinery capacity adjustment mechanisms need to be optimized to ensure aviation fuel supply security.In the medium to long term,an SAF industrial system driven by"mandatory policy guidance and market mechanisms"should be established,resolving the structural time lag through cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms to achieve the integrated coordination of short-term supply security and long-term low-carbon transition in the aviation fuel industry.关键词
航空煤油/成品油/航空业绿色转型/可持续航空燃料(SAF)/结构性时滞/绿色转型/国际航空碳抵消和减排机制(CORSIA)/碳减排/供需格局/十五五分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马晓丹.."十五五"我国航煤发展特征与转型趋势分析[J].石油石化绿色低碳,2026,11(1):34-39,65,7.
