数字图书馆论坛2025，Vol.21Issue(12)：48-58,11.DOI:10.3772/j.issn.1673-2286.2025.12.006
基于BERTopic-LSTM模型的新兴技术主题预测与价值评估
Topic Prediction and Value Evaluation of Emerging Technologies Based on BERTopic-LSTM Model:Taking Chinese Humanoid Robot as an Example
摘要
Abstract
Scientifically judging the evolution path of emerging technologies has important forward-looking enlightenment value for the national strategic layout of science and technology.In view of the limitations of existing research in fine-grained topic capture ability,lack of temporal feature fusion,and single evaluation dimension,this study constructs an analysis framework of"technology topic identification-emerging technology prediction-potential value evaluation",aiming to provide more accurate and interpretable decision-making basis for technology priority ranking and resource allocation.Firstly,a BERTopic-LSTM technology prediction model considering semantic evolution and temporal fusion is proposed to overcome the problem that traditional models are difficult to take into account the deep semantics and evolution continuity of text.Secondly,a two-dimensional evaluation matrix is designed to see through the growth impetus and ecological potential inclination of emerging technologies,and systematically identify their potential strategic value.Finally,an empirical analysis is carried out in the field of humanoid robot.The results show that the technical topics identified by the BERTopic-LSTM model in massive patent data are more fine-grained.Compared with other models,it performs better in RMSE,MAE,and R²,and the prediction results are highly consistent with the actual technology iteration trajectory.The research provides scientific theoretical support and tool reference for the innovation management decision-making of government and enterprises in complex environment.关键词
新兴技术/技术预测/BERTopic/LSTM/人形机器人Key words
Emerging Technology/Technology Prediction/BERTopic/LSTM/Humanoid Robot分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王琲,杨坤,殷涛..基于BERTopic-LSTM模型的新兴技术主题预测与价值评估[J].数字图书馆论坛,2025,21(12):48-58,11.基金项目
本研究得到教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金"'知识重组-场景重构'情境下数字创新空间中集群行为的演化、涌现及调控研究"(编号:22YJA630104)资助. （编号:22YJA630104）
