西北林学院学报2026，Vol.41Issue(2)：40-48,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2026.02.05
四川省黄葛树古树单木冠幅预测模型
Predictive Modelling of Single-tree Crown Width of Ancient Ficus virens Aiton Trees in Sichuan Province
摘要
Abstract
A mixed model theory was applied to construct a crown width model for the ancient trees Ficus virens trees,with a view to providing theoretical basis and practical guidance for the prediction of the ancient Ficus virens trees.The best base model was determined from the results of fitting eight crown width models using 7 652 ancient Ficus virens trees in Sichuan Province as the study object.Single-tree and soil factors were introduced into the optimal base model to construct a generalised model and analyse the relative importance of the factors and their effects on crown width growth.Based on the constructed gener-alised model,the mixed-effects model theory was used to construct the crown width model,and the con-structed model was tested using the leave-one-out cross-validation method to compare the prediction accu-racy of each model.The results indicate that the best base model for the ancient Ficus virens is the logistic model;tree age(AGE),soil organic carbon content(SOC),and soil pH were introduced separately to bet-ter explain the growth differences of ancient Ficus virens trees in Sichuan Province;The introduction of re-gional level random effects can significantly improve the model prediction accuracy,and the mean absolute error(MAE)of its test using leave-one-out cross-validation is 2.825 3 m;Empirical best linear unbiased prediction(EBLUP)was used for model calibration,and the predictive performance of the model improved with the increase of measured sample size.关键词
黄葛树/古树/冠幅模型/逻辑斯蒂模型/混合效应模型Key words
Ficus virens/ancient trees/crown width model/logistic model/mixed effects model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
林富成,苏月秀,马伟虎,刘凯,李守剑,罗华军,李江江,马文俊..四川省黄葛树古树单木冠幅预测模型[J].西北林学院学报,2026,41(2):40-48,9.基金项目
四川省林业和草原调查规划院科研基金项目"四川古树资源精准评价与健康维护关键技术研究"(LGKT2025103)、"四川省古树名木资源价值存续与价值维持(挖掘)关键技术研究及应用"(LGKT202103). （LGKT2025103）
