中国当代儿科杂志2026，Vol.28Issue(3)：309-315,7.DOI:10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2508027
重症溺水患儿死亡的危险因素研究:一项单中心10年回顾性分析
Risk factors for mortality in children with severe drowning:a 10-year single-center retrospective study
摘要
Abstract
Objective To study the clinical characteristics of children with severe drowning admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit and to identify risk factors for mortality.Methods Clinical data of 49 children with severe drowning admitted between January 2015 and December 2024 were retrospectively analyzed.Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for mortality and to construct a prediction model.Model performance for mortality risk was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results Among the 49 patients,the mortality rate was 24%(12/49),and the incidence of neurological sequelae among survivors was 22%(8/37).Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that admission Glasgow Coma Scale(GCS)score(OR=0.43,P<0.05),drowning duration(OR=1.22,P<0.05),and total prehospital time(per 10 minutes increase,OR=1.85,P<0.05)were associated with mortality.A mortality prediction model was constructed based on these three factors:logit(P)=6.26-0.85×GCS score at admission+0.20×drowning duration(minutes)+0.62×[total prehospital time(minutes)/10].The area under the ROC curve was 0.912(P<0.001),with a sensitivity of 83.3%and a specificity of 91.9%.Conclusions Severe drowning in children has a high mortality and a high rate of adverse outcomes.Admission GCS score,drowning duration,and total prehospital time are core risk factors for predicting mortality,and their combination serves as an effective indicator for early risk stratification.关键词
溺水/儿科重症监护室/预后/危险因素/儿童Key words
Drowning/Pediatric intensive care unit/Prognosis/Risk factor/Child引用本文复制引用
杨弋仙,严律,余华,熊吕平,刘洪,陈强..重症溺水患儿死亡的危险因素研究:一项单中心10年回顾性分析[J].中国当代儿科杂志,2026,28(3):309-315,7.基金项目
江西省科技厅临床医学研究中心优化组建项目(20223BCG74013). （20223BCG74013）
