中国海事Issue(3)：71-74,4.DOI:10.16831/j.cnki.issn1673-2278.2026.03.019
京杭运河吴江段船舶碰撞事故致因模型及应用
Causation Model and Application for Ship Collision Accidents in the Wujiang Section of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal
摘要
Abstract
The shipping system of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal may be regarded as relatively stable,with a relatively high frequency of vessel collisions,yet lacking quantitative analytical methods for their causal factors.This paper proposes converting time-series data into complex network models using visible graph algorithms,introducing formal concept analysis models to extract attribute sets through text mining methods.This methodology conducted time-series feature analysis on 217 collision incidents occurring consecutively over five years(2018-2022)along the Wujiang section of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal.Two representative accident black spots within this section were selected as the object set,establishing a formal causal background to construct a conceptual lattice of collision accident causes tailored to canal scenarios.The methodology was validated against collision incidents occurring over three consecutive years(2023-2025)in the Wujiang section.Results indicate the primary causal factors for canal vessel collisions are:vessel manoeuvres entering/exiting the main navigation channel;inconsistent intentions during overtaking manoeuvres;and the relatively narrow effective width of the canal navigation channel.关键词
事故黑点/形式概念分析/致因分析/属性约简Key words
accident black spots/formal concept analysis/cause analysis/attribute reduction分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
晏洋,谭志荣,包翎辰..京杭运河吴江段船舶碰撞事故致因模型及应用[J].中国海事,2026,(3):71-74,4.基金项目
湖北省教学改革项目资助项目(20231106) （20231106）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52271366) （52271366）
