农业展望2025，Vol.21Issue(11)：79-90,12.
国家研究前沿科研态势多维测度与比对分析
Multidimensional Metrics and Comparative Analysis of National Research Fronts'Development
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of profound restructuring in the global S&T competition landscape,continuous monitoring and analysis of national research fronts'development are crucial for optimizing S&T resource allocation and formulating innovation strategies.This study constructed a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing"foundational performance,developmental velocity,and future trajectory".By integrating bibliometrics,time series analysis,and LSTM prediction models,this framework achieved systematic quantification of the static foundations,dynamic evolution,and prospective potential of national research fronts,while also enabling comprehensive diagnostics of scientific competitiveness dynamics.An empirical analysis of 12 countries was conducted based on five ESI research fronts in agriculture.Experimental results demonstrate that:(1)LSTM models significantly outperform traditional models in prediction accuracy;(2)Indicator robustness was cross-verified by authoritative reports;(3)Three-dimensional measurements exhibit a strong correlation with conventional rankings.Furthermore,the analysis reveals both a macro-level hierarchical competition pattern and micro-level differentiated development characteristics in the advancement of national research fronts.This framework established a multidimensional decision-making benchmark for dynamic S&T competition early-warning and resource optimization.关键词
研究前沿/科研态势/测度指标/长短期记忆/趋势预测Key words
research fronts/research trajectory/metric indicators/long short-term memory(LSTM)/future trajectory prediction引用本文复制引用
孙巍,李周晶..国家研究前沿科研态势多维测度与比对分析[J].农业展望,2025,21(11):79-90,12.基金项目
2025年中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项"农业研究热点前沿及颠覆性技术发现研究"(Y2025ZZ04) （Y2025ZZ04）
