中国癌症防治杂志2026，Vol.18Issue(1)：19-27,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2026.01.03
2010-2019年武汉市膀胱癌死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析
Mortality trend and age-period-cohort model analysis of bladder cancer in Wuhan,2010-2019
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the mortality trend of bladder cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019,and to assess the effects of age,period,and cohort on the mortality rate,providing a scientific basis for prevention and control of bladder cancer.Methods Mortality data for bladder cancer(ICD-10:C67)from 2010 to 2019 were obtained from the Wuhan Death Cause Surveillance System.Crude mortality rate,the age-standardized mortality rate of the China standard population(ASMRC),and the age-standardized mortality rate of world standard population(ASMRW)were calculated.A joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the mortality trend,calcu-lating the annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC).An age-period-cohort model was applied to analyze the effects of age,period,and birth cohort on bladder cancer mortality risk.Results From 2010 to 2019,the crude mortality rate of bladder cancer in Wuhan increased from 2.43/105 to 3.34/105(AAPC=4.21%,P<0.001).The trends in ASMRC and ASMRW were not statistically significant(all P>0.05).The crude mortality rate,ASMRC and ASMRW were significantly higher in males than in females,and higher in urban than in rural areas.For males,significant upward trends were observed in the crude mortality rate,ASMRC and ASMRW(AAPC=5.14%,1.57%,and 2.57%,respectively;all P<0.05).In rural areas,the crude mortality rate showed a significant upward trend(AAPC=6.92%,P<0.001),whereas trends in age-standardized rates were not significant.No significant temporal trends were observed in the mortality rates for females or urban areas overall.Further segmental analysis revealed that both crude mortality rate and ASMRC of bladder cancer in males increased significantly from 2010 to 2015(APC=7.84%,4.20%,respectively;all P<0.05),and the ASMRW increased significantly from 2010 to 2014(APC=6.41%,P=0.001).The crude mortality rate,ASMRC and ASMRW of bladder cancer in rural areas showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2015(APC=13.58%,8.22%,and 9.14%,respectively;all P<0.05).The crude mortality rate in the 0-39 years age group showed a significant downward trend(AAPC=-12.45%,P<0.001),while the 60-69 years(AAPC=4.13%,P=0.041)and≥80 years(AAPC=4.32%,P=0.009)age groups were observed significant upward trends.The age-period-cohort model indicated no statistically significant independent effects of age,period,or birth cohort on bladder cancer mortality risk in the total population,males,or females during 2010-2019.Conclusions The mortality of bladder cancer in Wuhan shows an increasing trend from 2010 to 2019,with particularly prominent risks in males and the elderly population.While implementing com-prehensive prevention and control measures,targeted interventions should focus on these high-risk groups.关键词
膀胱癌/死亡趋势/年龄-时期-队列模型/武汉Key words
Bladder cancer/Mortality trend/Age-period-cohort model/Wuhan分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
邓青,刘普林,张晓霞,赵原原,熊金梦,张微,代娟..2010-2019年武汉市膀胱癌死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析[J].中国癌症防治杂志,2026,18(1):19-27,9.基金项目
中华预防医学会"老年健康体检队列和重大慢病专病数据库建设与应用研究"项目(JKCLPJ202501005) （JKCLPJ202501005）
湖北省科技计划项目(2024EDA028) （2024EDA028）
武汉市医学科学研究项目(WX23Z95) （WX23Z95）
