北京交通大学学报2026，Vol.50Issue(1)：71-82,12.DOI:10.11860/j.issn.1673-0291.20250086
考虑级联效应的煤炭公铁联运网络韧性评估模型
A resilience assessment model for coal multimodal transport networks considering cascading failures
摘要
Abstract
To address the limitations of existing research in adequately characterizing road-rail topological coupling and the mechanisms of cross-system load transfer and transmission time lags during node failures,this study constructs a topology model for coal multimodal transport networks that incorporates road-rail syn-ergistic structures.A cascading failure evolution mechanism is proposed,explicitly accounting for capacity constraints,cross-system transshipment,and transmission time lags.Addressing functional maintenance and recovery needs throughout the disturbance lifecycle,a three-dimensional resilience assessment index system,comprising resistance,absorption,and recovery capabilities,is established to quantify functional attenua-tion and restoration under varying disturbance intensities and scopes.Furthermore,two load redistribution strategies based on network structure and capacity distribution are designed to compare resilience under sce-narios of key node failure,cascading congestion,and cross-mode substitution.To characterize the impact of differentiated disturbances such as intentional attacks and natural disasters,a dynamic disturbance strategy based on grey information is introduced to simulate attack selection and resilience evolution under varying levels of network knowledge.Finally,a typical Chinese coal transport corridor is used as a case study to simulate the scenario.Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively captures key node failure characteristics and cascading evolution dynamics.The findings reveal that load redistribution strategies and disturbance modes significantly influence system resilience,providing a theoretical basis for enhancing network resilience,optimizing road-rail capacity allocation,and improving emergency response.关键词
煤炭运输/公铁联运/级联效应/韧性评估/灰度信息Key words
coal transportation/rail-road intermodal transport/cascading effect/resilience assess-ment/gray information分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
李尚洋,陈军华,崔赞扬,常征,温棹华..考虑级联效应的煤炭公铁联运网络韧性评估模型[J].北京交通大学学报,2026,50(1):71-82,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2024YFA1012904) （2024YFA1012904）
中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研发计划(N2024X016) （N2024X016）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2022JBQY005) National Key R&D Plan(2024YFA1012904) （2022JBQY005）
China Railway Science and Technology Development Plan Project(N2024X016) （N2024X016）
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2022JBQY005) （2022JBQY005）
