当代金融研究2026，Vol.9Issue(1)：1-16,16.DOI:10.20092/j.cnki.ddjryj.2026.01.001
金融机构风险的传染路径与时变特征
Contagion Pathways and Time-Varying Dynamics of Risk in Financial Institutions
摘要
Abstract
Based on the stock return data of 34 listed financial institutions in China from 2008 to 2025,this paper constructs a dynamic risk contagion network by the modified MES method and the DMST method to examine the contagion pathways and time-varying dynamics of financial risk.The findings include:(1)The tail risk of financial institutions exhibits procyclicality and surges sharply under the impact of financial risk events;(2)There are strong intra-industry linkages within the banking,securities,and insurance sectors,while diversified financial institutions predominantly exhibit cross-industry linkages with securities firms;(3)The role of risk drivers and risk bearers has shifted from banks to securities firms;(4)Banks and securities firms have long served as the important bridges for risk contagion,with some small and medium-sized institutions that maintain close interconnections emerging as key transmission nodes.The conclusions provide empirical evidence for regulatory authorities to assess the risk significance of financial institutions,refine the list of systemically important institutions,and implement dynamic risk supervi-sion.关键词
金融风险/风险传染/MES方法/网络中心度Key words
Financial Risk/Risk Contagion/MES Method/Network Centrality分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
梁义娟,李洁,巴红静..金融机构风险的传染路径与时变特征[J].当代金融研究,2026,9(1):1-16,16.基金项目
重庆市社会科学规划项目博士培育项目"网络视角下系统性金融风险传染及防控研究"(2020PY47) （2020PY47）
辽宁省教育厅项目"乡村振兴战略下金融支持农村一二三产业融合发展研究"(LN2019Q02) （LN2019Q02）
东北财经大学校级科研项目"相对贫困阶段数字普惠金融的减贫增收效应研究"(DUFE2020Y01). （DUFE2020Y01）
