南方农业学报2026，Vol.57Issue(2)：439-450,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2026.02.012
基于MaxEnt模型预测绿盲蝽在我国的潜在适生区分布
Prediction of distribution of potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China based on MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aimed to elucidate the distribution of habitats and potential habitats for Apolygus lu-corum in China under historic,contemporary,and future climate change scenarios,thereby providing references for cur-rent accurate control and regional governance of Apolygus lucorum,and theoretical support for the future occurrence trend of Apolygus lucorum in China under the background of global warming.[Method]Based on the data from the 80 distribu-tion points of Apolygus lucorum in China and 7 climate factors[mean monthly temperature range(bio2),isothermality(bio3),variance of temperature variance(bio4),mean temperature of wettest quarter(bio8),precipitation of driest month(bio14),precipitation seasonality(bio15),precipitation of warmest quarter(bio18)],the MaxEnt model was used to analyze habitats and potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China at historic periods[last interglacial(LIG),last glacial maximum(LGM),mid-Holocene(MH)],contemporary(1970-2000)and in the future(2030s,2050s,2070s,2090s)under different climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5).[Result]The most important environ-mental factors affecting Apolygus lucorum distribution were bio8,bio18,bio2,and bio15,with the suitable ranges of 24.14-35.69℃,417.46-2148.40 mm,3.37-10.70℃,and 98.56%-159.53%respectively.Under historic climate condi-tions,Apolygus lucorum was mainly distributed in southern China;under contemporary climate scenarios,the habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China were mainly concentrated in eastern and central China.Compared with the contemporary period,the total areas of habitats in the LIG,LGM,and MH were reduced.Under the future climate conditions,the total area of habitats for Apolygus lucorum would be increasing,and the areas of moderately and highly suitable habitats gradua-lly increased with the increase of carbon dioxide emissions under different climate scenarios,and the future climate change would lead to obvious expansions of the potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum to western and northern China.[Conclusion]The distribution of habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China is relatively extensive.Under current climate con-ditions,the habitats are mainly distributed in eastern and central China,but future climate change would lead to expan-sions of the habitats for Apolygus lucorum to western and northern China.Such expansion would expand the damage caused by Apolygus lucorum,posing a greater threat to agricultural production.关键词
绿盲蝽/适生区/MaxEnt模型/环境因素Key words
Apolygus lucorum/habitat/MaxEnt model/environmental factor分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刁利珊,徐扬,杨晓杰,方美玲,赵曼,李为争,郭线茹,张利娟..基于MaxEnt模型预测绿盲蝽在我国的潜在适生区分布[J].南方农业学报,2026,57(2):439-450,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32470470) （32470470）
河南省自然科学基金项目(232300420010) （232300420010）
河南省玉米产业技术体系植保岗位科学家科研专项(HARS-22-02-G3) National Natural Science Foundation of China(32470470) （HARS-22-02-G3）
Henan Natural Science Foundation(232300420010) （232300420010）
Scientific Research Project of Plant Protection Post Scientist of Henan Maize Industry Technology Sys-tem(HARS-22-02-G3) （HARS-22-02-G3）
