干旱区研究2026，Vol.43Issue(3)：527-538,12.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2026.03.07
黄河源区近地表冻结状态变化及其对径流的影响
Changes in near-surface freeze-thaw state and their impact on stream flow in the source region of the Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
Based on soil temperature data at depths of 0-40 cm,we investigate the characteristics of soil tempera-ture and freeze-thaw state dynamics in the Yellow River source region and their impacts on streamflow from 1982 to 2020.Using 1-km resolution gridded soil temperature data(0-40 cm depths)interpolated from station ob-servations using a thin plate spline method,we analyzed long-term trends in soil temperature and associated changes in soil freezing states.In addition,we integrated meteorological variables(e.g.,precipitation,air tempera-ture,and evapotranspiration)and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)datasets to quantify the impact of soil freezing state variation on streamflow using random forest and Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP).The results show a marked shift in the streamflow trend in the Yellow River source region:A sharp decline oc-curred during the earlier period(1982-2002),with an average annual reduction of 6.11×108 m3,followed by a no-table increase during the later period(2002-2020),at an average rate of 6.02×108 m3 per year.Soil warming at 0-40 cm depths was accompanied by a substantial decrease in the frozen soil area across all layers and notable freez-ing depth shallowing in winter.Random forest modeling combined with SHAP interpretation revealed a nonlinear relationship between stratified soil freezing states and streamflow.Among the variables representing soil freezing states,the streamflow during 1982-2002 was mainly influenced by the frozen areas at 0 cm and 10 cm depths,with relative contributions of 8.3％and 7.2％,respectively.Meanwhile,during 2002-2020,the primary influenc-ing factors shifted to the frozen areas at 0 and 40 cm,with relative contributions of 10.6％and 8.4％,respectively.Further,the interannual variations in streamflow were more sensitive to fluctuations in the surface soil freezing state(0-10 cm)than in the deeper freezing state(15-40 cm).This study elucidates the changes in near-surface soil temperature and associated freeze-thaw dynamics under climate warming and their effects on streamflow,pro-viding key insights for hydrological process studies in cold regions.关键词
土壤温度/随机森林/SHAP/黄河源区Key words
soil temperature/random forest/SHAP/source region of the Yellow River引用本文复制引用
鲍玥颖,朱求安,罗栋梁,侯玉宇,于冬雪,方秀琴,任立良..黄河源区近地表冻结状态变化及其对径流的影响[J].干旱区研究,2026,43(3):527-538,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFF0808704) （2024YFF0808704）
国家自然科学基金项目(42041005,U2243203) （42041005,U2243203）
