河海大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.54Issue(2)：82-93,12.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2026.02.010
鄱阳湖水文情势演变对水质的驱动作用
Driving effect of hydrological regime evolution on water quality in Poyang Lake
摘要
Abstract
Based on the long-term observation data of Poyang Lake,various mathematical statistical methods were used to explore the trend,mutation,and periodic characteristics of the hydrological regime evolution,and the fluctuation process of water quality was analyzed by selecting the indicators of permanganate index,ammonia nitrogen,and total phosphorus.Moreover,the driving effects of different hydrological parameters on water quality were analyzed.The results show that the water level of Poyang Lake has generally decreased from 1962 to 2022,with an average rate of change of-0.013 5 m/a,and the abrupt change year is concentrated around 2003,with a water level change cycle of about 36 years;the water quality shows a decreasing-and-then-stabilizing trend from 1988 to 2022,with total phosphorus as the main exceedance factor,and the exceedance multiples range from 0.02 to 2.31;the slight fluctuating trend of water quality indicators at each station since 2015 is expected to continue in the future at most stations;the permanganate index is weakly correlated with hydrological parameters,and ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus are significantly correlated with many hydrological parameters.The water level is the main factor influencing the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus.Water temperature,precipitation amount,and inflow volume of water have significant regulatory effects on water quality changes.Water level changes have a significant unidirectional effect on ammonia nitrogen and a relatively complex effect on total phosphorus.关键词
水文情势/水质变化/驱动作用/鄱阳湖Key words
hydrological regime/water quality change/driving effect/Poyang Lake引用本文复制引用
窦佳瑶,王华,王世岩,韩祯,闫雨婷..鄱阳湖水文情势演变对水质的驱动作用[J].河海大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,54(2):82-93,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC320900001) （2023YFC320900001）
国家自然科学基金项目(52179064) （52179064）
江西省"科技+水利"联合计划项目(2023KSG003) （2023KSG003）
2024年度江西省水利厅科技项目(202426ZDKT17) （202426ZDKT17）
