湖南大学学报（社会科学版）2026，Vol.40Issue(2)：53-68,16.DOI:10.16339/j.cnki.hdxbskb.2026.02.007
东道国地缘政治风险与中国企业对外直接投资区位选择
Geopolitical Risks of Host Countries and Location Choice of Outward Foreign Direct Investments(OFDI)of Chinese Enterprises:From the Perspective of Supply Chain Shocks
摘要
Abstract
The impact of geopolitical risks on Chinese enterprises' participation in the global economy has be-come increasingly pronounced.Developing a heterogeneous firm investment model to characterize firms' interna-tional direct investment decisions under geopolitical risk shocks.Utilizing the data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2022 and employing casualty figures from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an instrumental variable,finding elevated geopolitical risks in a host country leads to a significant increase in direct investment by Chinese firms.This phenomenon is jointly driven by rising trade costs,supply chain disruptions,and the host coun-try's macroeconomic policies,indicating an active supply chain relocation in response to geopolitical risks.Further analysis reveals that economic policy uncertainty amplifies the influence of geopolitical risks on the location choice of firms' outward foreign direct investment.Moreover,against the backdrop of trade frictions,the relationship be-tween geopolitical risks and outward foreign direct investment exhibits heterogeneity depending on the framework of international political and economic cooperation.关键词
地缘政治风险/对外直接投资/供应链冲击Key words
geopolitical risk/outward foreign direct investment/supply chain shock分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
黄新飞,陈海涛..东道国地缘政治风险与中国企业对外直接投资区位选择[J].湖南大学学报（社会科学版）,2026,40(2):53-68,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目:以优化区域开放布局推动形成全面开放新格局的体制机制研究(25&ZD192) （25&ZD192）
广东省自然科学基金卓越青年团队项目:基于双循环背景下中国双向直接投资理论与应用研究(2024B1515040021) （2024B1515040021）
