华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）Issue(2)：64-73,10.DOI:10.13300/j.cnki.hnwkxb.2026.02.006
"趋粮化"抑或"非粮化":粮食安全目标下经济政策不确定性与种植结构变化
"Grain-Oriented"or"Non-Grain-Oriented":Economic Policy Uncertainty and Changes in Crop Planting Structure Under the Goal of Food Security
摘要
Abstract
Using data from the China Family Database,this study employs the instrumental vari-able method to identify the causal effects of economic policy uncertainty on planting structure and the un-derlying mechanisms.The research results are as follows.First,from 2008 to 2021,the overall uncertainty of China's economic policies considering inter provincial heterogeneity exhibited a fluctuating downward trend.Second,an increase in economic policy uncertainty accelerates the"non-grain"shift in planting structure.The results remain robust after addressing endogeneity,with the effect being more pronounced among households with higher agricultural income and among middle-aged and younger farmers.Third,economic policy uncertainty accelerates the"non-grain"shift by curbing land transfer,and mitigates this shift by reducing informal credit constraints.Based on these findings,policy recommendations are pro-posed,including improving transparency in policy formulation and implementation,guiding orderly land transfer,and gradually improving financial markets.关键词
经济政策不确定性/种植结构/非粮化/土地流转/信贷约束Key words
economic policy uncertainty/planting structure/non-grain shift/land transfer/credit constraints分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
程丹,杨丹,刘海.."趋粮化"抑或"非粮化":粮食安全目标下经济政策不确定性与种植结构变化[J].华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2026,(2):64-73,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"农业社会化服务推动小农生产转型的作用机制与路径优化"(23BGL191) （23BGL191）
重庆教育委员会人文社会科学重点项目"构建重庆教育高质量发展体系研究"(22SKZZ001) （22SKZZ001）
重庆市哲学社会科学创新工程研究重点项目"重庆建设内陆开放合作引领区研究"(2024CXDZ41). （2024CXDZ41）
