人民黄河2026，Vol.48Issue(4)：54-60,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.04.008
黄河流域未来水文气象要素变化趋势预测
Trend Prediction of Future Hydrometeorological Elements in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
To investigate future trends in hydrometeorological elements in the Yellow River Basin,assess its future water resources status,and provide targeted scientific references for subsequent decision-making and development planning,this study adopted a calibrated and vali-dated WEB-DHM-SG hydrological model driven by the ISIMIP3b meteorological dataset under three different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP126,SSP370 and SSP585).Using the historical period 1985-2015 as a baseline,the spatial and temporal evolution trends of hydro-meteorological elements in the basin were projected for the near-(2025-2040),mid-(2041-2070)and long-term(2071-2100)future.The results indicate that:Temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Yellow River Basin generally increase to varying degrees,though the rates and magnitudes of increase differ.Under global warming,all provinces(regions)in the basin(except Shandong)exhibit warming trends,with Sichuan Province showing the most pronounced rise(3.87-7.57℃).In contrast,Shandong Province experiences a cooling trend(-0.94 to-4.14℃).Both precipitation and runoff fluctuate upward interannually,but the variation in runoff is significantly smaller than that in precipitation.The projected precipitation increases across provinces(regions)ranged from 10.85%to 34.15%in the mid-term and from 18.88%to 54.21%in the long-term.Runoff is projected to continuously decrease in Gansu,Qinghai and Sichuan provinces,with reductions ranging from 5.19%to 59.44%;Meanwhile,the other six provinces(regions)show steady increases in runoff,ranging from 49.02%to 158.11%.关键词
降水/径流/时空演变/未来趋势/黄河流域Key words
precipitation/runoff/spatio-temporal evolution/future trend/Yellow River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
牛鑫,刘婕,齐伟,申瑜,祝雪萍..黄河流域未来水文气象要素变化趋势预测[J].人民黄河,2026,48(4):54-60,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52379018) （52379018）
国家自然科学基金联合基金资助项目(U22A20613) （U22A20613）
山西省自然科学基金资助项目(202103021223113) （202103021223113）
山西省科技创新人才团队专项(202204051002027) （202204051002027）
