清华大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.66Issue(3)：586-596,11.DOI:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2026.26.002
基于风速和风向概率分布的导线疲劳寿命评估方法
Conductor fatigue life assessment method based on wind speed and wind direction probability distributions
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Although existing research on conductor fatigue life has established a corresponding theoretical basis and provided core support for subsequent calculation work,two key issues remain in engineering applications.First,although the combined dynamic effects of wind speed and direction in the field environment are critical to the actual fatigue evolution process and service life of conductors,existing models insufficiently consider this factor,leading to discrepancies between life predictions based on theoretical calculations and actual engineering observations.Second,the existing theoretical system for fatigue life calculation is complex,requires specified calculation methods,and demands high levels of professional and technical knowledge from customers.As a result,wide promotion and efficient application in the power industry—especially in grassroots operation and maintenance units—are difficult,restricting the transformation of theoretical results into engineering practice.To address these problems,this study proposes a method for evaluating conductor fatigue life based on the probability distributions of wind speed and direction.[Methods]Transmission lines in Northwest China were selected as the research object.More than 10 years of meteorological data from this region were systematically collected and analyzed,and the probability density functions of wind speed and wind direction were accurately obtained.Considering the key factors such as conductor type,span,and tension,more than 40 000 finite element models of conductor-insulator string suspension systems were constructed.Three typical conductors corresponding to maximum,median,and minimum frequencies were selected for fatigue analysis based on the first-order positive symmetrical side-bending frequency of the conductor.Nonlinear dynamic response analysis was then carried out for these conductors,and their stress time histories were extracted.Finally,the annual fatigue performance of different conductors was evaluated using the Wöhler safety curve,the rain flow counting method,and Miner's linear cumulative damage theory based on the measured wind speed distribution.[Results]The analysis showed the following results:(1)Monitoring of local meteorological conditions revealed that the dominant wind direction in the study area was southeast,and the wind speed distribution conformed to the generalized extreme value distribution with a position parameter of 2.507,a shape parameter of 0.080,and a scale parameter of 1.440.(2)Stress time histories were extracted at the suspension point edge(40 cm),the 1/4-span position,and the midspan position.The stress level at the suspension point edge was considerably higher than that at other positions,and the average stress of the conductor increased with decreasing natural frequency and increasing wind speed.(3)The degree of wind-induced fatigue damage was closely related to the conductor's natural frequency and the ambient wind speed.The lower the natural frequency was,the greater the fatigue damage,especially at higher wind speeds.A fatigue performance database of transmission lines was finally established based on conductor parameters.[Conclusions]The findings of this study provide an efficient and practical tool for transmission line operation and maintenance.By entering key parameters such as conductor type,tension,and span and combining them with regional wind speed and direction data,the method enables rapid estimation of conductor fatigue life,scientific assessment of remaining service life,proactive maintenance of high-risk line segments,and significant improvement in the operational efficiency of transmission line maintenance.Its application contributes to ensuring the safety and stability of power system operation.关键词
输电导线/有限元模型/气象数据/雨流计数法/疲劳性能评估/线路运维优化Key words
transmission conductor/finite element model/meteorological data/rain-flow counting method/fatigue performance assessment/line operation and maintenance optimization分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王凯,郝键铭,张宏杰,袁守浩..基于风速和风向概率分布的导线疲劳寿命评估方法[J].清华大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,66(3):586-596,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52508528) （52508528）
陕西省自然科学基金项目(2023-JC-QN-0597) （2023-JC-QN-0597）
