人民黄河2026，Vol.48Issue(4)：91-98,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.04.013
基于二次博弈组合权重的张掖市水资源承载力评价
Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Zhangye City Based on Quadratic Game Combined Weights
摘要
Abstract
In order to accurately assess the water resources carrying capacity in Zhangye City and enhance its water resources management and development,a comprehensive evaluation system comprising 20 indicators was established based on the"water resources-social-economy-ecology"composite system.The period from 2014 to 2023 was analyzed using a combination of quadratic game combined weights and the GRA-TOPSIS model to track the changes in Zhangye City's water resources carrying capacity.The primary obstacles to the water resources carrying capacity were identified through the obstacle degree model.The results showed that:a)From 2014 to 2023,Zhangye City's overall water resources carrying capacity remained at Level Ⅲ(close to critical capacity),showing an increasing trend from 2014 to 2017 and a fluctuating decline from 2018 to 2023;b)From 2014 to 2017,the economic and ecological subsystems were the main obstacles indicators to enhancing water resources carrying capacity,while the water resources and ecological subsystems emerged as the main obstacles from 2018 to 2023;c)From the perspective of the entire study period,key obstacle indicators were water development utilization rate,per capita water re-sources,population density,average irrigation water volume per hectare of farmland,ecological environment water usage rate and sewage treatment rate.It is suggested to develop water-saving technologies,optimize water resource allocation,scientifically manage residential domestic water,agricultural irrigation water and ecological water,so as to further improve the water resources carrying capacity.关键词
水资源承载力/二次博弈组合权重/GRA-TOPSIS模型/障碍度/张掖市Key words
water resources carrying capacity/quadratic game combined weights/GRA-TOPSIS model/obstacle degree/Zhangye City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
田凯夫,陈宁,王涛,胡广录,靳涛阳,陈坤..基于二次博弈组合权重的张掖市水资源承载力评价[J].人民黄河,2026,48(4):91-98,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41867074) （41867074）
甘肃省水利厅水利科学试验研究技术推广项目(甘水建管发[2021]71号) （甘水建管发[2021]71号）
甘肃省张掖市甘州区水资源费项目(甘区水务发[2024]237号) （甘区水务发[2024]237号）
