人民珠江2026，Vol.47Issue(3)：54-66,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2026.03.006
基于NEX-GDDP-CMIP6的内蒙古未来极端降水预估
Future Extreme Precipitation Estimation in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6
摘要
Abstract
Serving as a vital ecological security barrier in northern China,Inner Mongolia encompasses arid,semi-arid,and semi-humid regions characterized by complex and diverse climatic conditions.This diversity increases the region's susceptibility to extreme precipitation events,which can lead to flooding,water resource imbalances,and disturbances to ecosystems.Such events present considerable risks to agricultural and pastoral production,as well as to broader socioeconomic development.To enhance preparedness for future extreme precipitation events,this study utilized simulation data from 26 Earth System Models under the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 initiative,combined with the high-resolution Chinese meteorological reanalysis dataset CN05.1.The accuracy of the multi-model Ensemble Median was evaluated.Furthermore,the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of five extreme precipitation indices during the early,mid,and late 21st century under four shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)were investigated,in comparison with the historical reference period.Key findings are as follows:① During the future projection period(2015-2100),all extreme precipitation indices across the four aridity and humidity zones showed a significant increasing trend,with the magnitude of change closely correlated to greenhouse gas emission levels.The upward tendency intensified progressively under higher emission scenarios,becoming most pronounced under SSP5-8.5.Considerable spatial heterogeneity was observed in the rate of increase among different climatic zones.For instance,semi-humid zones consistently exhibited the fastest rise in Rx1day and Rx5day across all scenarios.In contrast,the regions with the most significant increases in R10 mm,R20 mm,and SDII varied depending on the scenario,shifting among arid,semi-arid,and semi-humid zones under different SSPs.These differential responses highlight regional disparities in climate sensitivity and underscore the critical influence of emission levels on the intensity and spatial distribution of future extreme precipitation events.② During the historical reference period,the spatial distribution of all extreme precipitation indices exhibited a distinct east-west gradient,with higher values consistently observed in the eastern regions and lower values in the west.Notably,the most significant upward trend in these indices occurred in arid regions,highlighting their particular vulnerability to climatic shifts.Throughout all future simulation periods,a consistent pattern emerged:as emission levels rose,so did the magnitude of extreme precipitation indices.This trend was markedly more pronounced under high-emission scenarios,with the most substantial increases projected for the late 21st century.The amplified response in arid zones underscores their heightened sensitivity to climate change and suggests an accelerating risk of extreme precipitation events in these regions under continued greenhouse gas forcing.The differential spatial and temporal patterns further emphasize the importance of considering region-specific vulnerabilities in climate adaptation planning.③ Across different simulation periods,extreme precipitation indices show an overall increase with higher emissions,with more pronounced trends under high-emission scenarios and greater magnitudes of increase in the later periods.The research results indicate that Inner Mongolia may face more frequent and severe extreme precipitation events in the future,which is of great significance for the formulation of regional water resources management,flood control,and disaster reduction strategies.关键词
极端降水指数/CMIP6/共享社会经济路径/气候变化/未来预估Key words
extreme precipitation index/CMIP6/shared socioeconomic pathway/climate change/future projection分类
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李肖菲凡,王云路,付洪浚,罗依梦,肖梓涵,陈丽,刘婷,崔歆雨..基于NEX-GDDP-CMIP6的内蒙古未来极端降水预估[J].人民珠江,2026,47(3):54-66,13.基金项目
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2024LHMS04014) （2024LHMS04014）
内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202426、nmqxkjcx202443) （nmqxkjcx202426、nmqxkjcx202443）
鄂尔多斯市气象局自立科技创新项目(ORDOSQX202401) （ORDOSQX202401）
