全球科技经济瞭望2025，Vol.40Issue(11)：1-9,64,10.DOI:10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2025.11-12.001
美国技术预见的历程、实践及启示
History,Practice,and Insights of U.S.Technology Foresight
摘要
Abstract
Technology foresight(TF)is an important policy instrument for assessing future directions of science and technology(S&T)development and guiding the allocation of resources.This paper examines the United States as a case study and provides a systematic review of the evolution and main practices of TF in the U.S.Drawing on document analysis and case studies,the study focuses on U.S.contributions to the early development of TF as well as two recent rounds of critical technology selection undertaken at the federal level.The findings show that,although the United States has not established a centralized and institutionalized national TF system,it has played a functional substitute role in setting S&T priorities through critical technology selection and a range of complementary policy instruments.This pathway is closely associated with the U.S.tradition of laissez-faire policymaking and its decentralized system of S&T governance.This paper summarizes the key characteristics of U.S.TF practices and discusses their implications for the development of national TF initiatives in China.关键词
美国/技术预测/技术预见/关键技术选择/国家创新体系Key words
the United States/technology forecasting/technology foresight/critical technology selection/national innovation system分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
姚逸雪,钟卫,袁立科..美国技术预见的历程、实践及启示[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2025,40(11):1-9,64,10.基金项目
中国科学技术发展战略研究院创新型国家建设监测和智库建设专项"技术预测方法工具箱开发及应用研究"(NTF2309). （NTF2309）
