水土保持研究2026，Vol.33Issue(3)：266-276,11.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2026.03.029
基于土地利用变化的洞庭湖地区碳储量时空演变及情景模拟
Spatiotemporal evolution and scenario simulation of carbon storage in Dongting Lake area based on land use change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to investigate the relationship between regional land use changes and ecosystem carbon storage,and to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of future carbon storage under different scenarios,thereby providing scientific support for optimizing land use patterns,enhancing regional carbon storage,and achieving the"dual carbon"strategic goals.[Methods]The PLUS-InVEST model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the Dongting Lake area from 2000 to 2020.Combined with 16 driving factors,this study predicted land use and carbon storage change trends in the study area under different scenarios for 2040.[Results](1)From 2000 to 2020,the main land use types in the Dongting Lake area were cultivated land and forest land,together accounting for nearly 80%of the total area.Cultivated land,forest land,grassland,and water bodies showed a decreasing trend,while construction land and unused land exhibited an increasing trend.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the total carbon storage in the Dongting Lake area showed a decreasing trend.The total carbon storage in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 were 7.455×108 t,7.436×108 t,7.414×108 t,7.402×108 t,and 7.389×108 t,respectively,with forest land being the primary carbon source.(3)The conversion of land use types directly affected carbon storage.From 2000 to 2020,the transfer of cultivated land and forest land resulted in decreases in carbon storage of 6.3×105 t and 1.56×107 t,respectively.The transfer of grassland and water bodies caused carbon storage to increase by 5.8×105 t and 5.8×106 t,respectively.The transfer of construction land and unused land caused carbon storage to increase by 2.7×105 t and 8.5×105 t,respectively.(4)It was predicted that by 2040,the carbon storage under the four scenarios of natural development,cultivated land protection,economic development,and ecological protection would be 7.352×108 t,7.363×108 t,7.347×108 t,and 7.398×108 t,respectively.Among these,the total carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario was predicted to increase compared to 2020,while the other three scenarios showed a decreasing trend.[Conclusion]The main reason for the decrease in carbon storage in the Dongting Lake area is the conversion of high carbon storage land types such as forest land and cultivated land to low carbon storage land types such as construction land.In the future,it is necessary to optimize territorial spatial planning to increase regional carbon storage.关键词
土地利用变化/洞庭湖地区/碳储量/情景模拟Key words
land use change/Dongting Lake area/carbon storage/scenario simulation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
申海建,郭荣中,张阔,刘华平..基于土地利用变化的洞庭湖地区碳储量时空演变及情景模拟[J].水土保持研究,2026,33(3):266-276,11.基金项目
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2024JJ8363,2023JJ60253) （2024JJ8363,2023JJ60253）
自然资源部南方丘陵区自然资源监测监管重点实验室开放基金课题(NRMSSHR2022Y11) （NRMSSHR2022Y11）
湖南省教育厅科研项目(23C1058) （23C1058）
