水土保持研究2026，Vol.33Issue(3)：277-288,12.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2026.03.040
近30年黄泛区人类活动强度与水-碳生态服务功能匹配的时空关联特征
Spatiotemporal correlation characteristics between human activity intensity and water-carbon ecosystem service function matching in Yellow River Floodplain over past 30 years
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to clarify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of water-carbon ecosystem service function matching under different human activity intensities,reveal their zoning response patterns and mechanisms of action,and provide theoretical guidance for promoting regional water-carbon synergistic development.[Methods]Based on comprehensive indicator weighting and correlation analysis methods,this study quantified the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of human activity intensity(HAI)and the trade-off/synergy relationships between water yield(WY)and carbon sequestration(CS)in the Yellow River Floodplain(YRFP)from 1990 to 2020,and constructed an HAI-water-carbon ecosystem service function matching response zoning model to identify their coupling patterns and zoning dynamics.Furthermore,partial least squares structural equation modeling(PLS-SEM)was applied to areas with low,medium,and high levels of HAI to systematically reveal the differentiated response pathways and dominant mechanisms of water-carbon ecosystem service function matching.[Results](1)The YRFP exhibited a"multi-core-transition-periphery"gradient structure of HAI,forming a spatiotemporal evolution pattern characterized by"the coexistence of dynamic expansion and local regression",with the core urban areas,especially in Zhengzhou,showing prominent expansion.From 1990 to 2020,HAI exhibited a continuous increase and a dynamic shift toward higher levels,with high-intensity areas increasing by 0.34%between 2000 and 2010.(2)From 1990 to 2000,a key transition from trade-off to synergy occurred between WY and CS services,with the proportion of areas showing strong synergy increasing from 2%to 11%.From 2000 to 2020,spatial synergy remained the dominant mode of interaction.(3)From 2010 to 2020,the area proportion of water-carbon ecosystem service function matching response zones under medium and high HAI increased significantly.Except for the high-intensity-synergy zone,all other types expanded,with increase rates of 0.06%(high-intensity-trade-off zone),0.57%(medium-intensity-trade-off zone),and 0.55%(medium-intensity-synergy zone),primarily converted from no-response zones and low-intensity control zones in 2010.(4)From 1990 to 2020,in low-HAI control zones,the total effect of HAI on water-carbon ecosystem service function matching turned negative from 2010 onward(-0.129 in 2010,-0.233 in 2020),indicating that human activity significantly promoted WY-CS synergy.In medium-and high-HAI control zones,the total effects(significant)between 2000 and 2020 were 0.235,0.158,and 0.188,respectively.Although indirect effects slightly mitigated them after 2010,they did not reverse the overall trade-off trend.In both 2010 and 2020,the dominant observed factors of HAI across all intensity zones were agricultural,industrial,and domestic water consumption,followed by GDP density and population density.[Conclusion]HAI significantly influences the evolution pathways of WY-CS trade-off/synergy relationships in the YRFP.Under medium-and high-intensity disturbances,trade-off zones have expanded considerably.Therefore,strengthening the coordinated management of water use behaviors and socioeconomic factors is critical for achieving ecological synergy.关键词
人类活动强度/生态系统服务/水碳耦合/偏最小二乘结构方程模型/时空关联Key words
human activity intensity/ecosystem services/water-carbon coupling/partial least squares structural equation modeling/spatiotemporal correlation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
黄霄宇,王新宇,王进欣..近30年黄泛区人类活动强度与水-碳生态服务功能匹配的时空关联特征[J].水土保持研究,2026,33(3):277-288,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"苏北海岸带盐沼甲基供体及其前体成分的空间分布和对甲烷排放的影响"(31870455) （31870455）
