系统管理学报2026，Vol.35Issue(2)：505-524,20.DOI:10.3969/j.issn2097-4558.2026.02.015
全球经济冲击对实际有效汇率的影响及外汇储备的缓冲效应
Impact of Global Economic Shocks on the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Buffering Effect of Foreign Exchange Reserves
摘要
Abstract
Based on macro panel data from 2000 to 2020 across 109 countries,this paper,employing nonlinear regression and panel threshold regression methods,investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rates.Additionally,it explores the buffering effect of foreign exchange reserves and identifies their threshold values.The results indicate that real effective exchange rates are influenced by global economic shocks at both the trade and financial levels,with foreign exchange reserves providing a buffering effect against both types of global economic shocks.The heterogeneity analysis indicates that for countries with high levels of financial development,the impact of financial shocks is not significant,and more attention should be paid to trade shocks.For countries with lower levels of financial development,both types of shocks have significant impacts,and they should hold sufficient foreign exchange reserves to guard against these shocks.For countries with large industrial capacity and strong technological competitiveness,global economic shocks have no significant impact.However,for countries with large industrial capacity but weak technological competitiveness,there is an impact.The most significant impact of global economic shocks is on countries with small industrial capacity and weak technology.The threshold effect shows that when a country's foreign exchange reserves as a proportion of GDP exceed a certain threshold,it can effectively resist global economic shocks.This paper provides policy implications for preventing global economic shocks,optimizing the scale of foreign exchange reserves,and maintaining the basic stability of our country's exchange rate.关键词
实际有效汇率/外汇储备/全球金融周期/贸易条件Key words
real effective exchange rate/foreign exchange reserves/global financial cycle/terms of trade分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
赵尚梅,王劲奇,谭小芬..全球经济冲击对实际有效汇率的影响及外汇储备的缓冲效应[J].系统管理学报,2026,35(2):505-524,20.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD101) （20&ZD101）
