系统管理学报2026，Vol.35Issue(2)：543-559,17.DOI:10.3969/j.issn2097-4558.2026.02.017
全球金融系统安全的风险感知测度研究
Risk Perception Measurement of Global Financial Systemic Security
摘要
Abstract
Financial security is an important guarantee for the stable operation of a country's macroeconomy.Faced with an increasingly complex global financial system,it is particularly important to accurately perceive and measure systemic risks and financial security status across countries.This paper builds a multi-quantile intelligent risk perception model and uses financial market index,commodity prices,and national macroeconomic state variables of G20 countries from October 2004 to September 2023 to measure systemic financial risks,risk sources,and security levels of different countries under different risk states.The results show that the spillover of financial risks faced by countries mainly originate from global stock markets,especially neighboring countries,while commodities and macroeconomic factors generally play a risk-mitigating role.China's systemic financial risk and security level are relatively less affected by shocks from the global financial system but are more sensitive to its own economic conditions.In addition,systemic risks in developing countries are generally higher than those in developed countries,and their financial security levels—calculated under the unified consideration of external shocks and macroeconomic characteristics—are also generally lower.The intelligent risk perception model expands the research perspective on systemic risk and provides regulatory authorities with a practical tool for monitoring systemic risks and financial security levels under various risk conditions.关键词
金融系统安全/系统性风险/多分位风险智能感知/网络脆弱性Key words
financial systemic security/systemic risk/multi-quantile intelligence risk perception/network vulnerability分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
邱龙淼,刘晓星,朱子言..全球金融系统安全的风险感知测度研究[J].系统管理学报,2026,35(2):543-559,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72173018) （72173018）
国家社会科学基金重大项目(24&ZD117) （24&ZD117）
