重庆文理学院学报（社会科学版）2026，Vol.45Issue(2)：1-19,19.DOI:10.19493/j.cnki.issn1673-8004.2026.02.001
中国农业新质生产力发展水平的区域差异、时空演变及收敛分析
Regional Differences,Spatiotemporal Evolution and Convergence Analysis of the Development Level of New-Quality Agricultural Productive Forces in China
摘要
Abstract
New-quality agricultural productive forces are key driving forces for agricultural modernization and the construction of an agricultural power.To scientifically measure its development level,from the perspective of input-output factor restructuring,this paper employs the XGBoost algorithm to calculate the new-quality agricultural productive of forces 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022,and conducts an in-depth analysis from three dimensions:regional differences,spatiotemporal evolution,and convergence.The research findings are as follows:First,in terms of the overall pattern,grain-consuming regions and eastern China take the leading position in the development level of new-quality agricultural productive forces,and the national distribution shows a right-skewed characteristic,with grain-producing regions,central regions,and western grain production-marketing balance regions forming a gradient gap in turn.Second,regional differences present a"club convergence"phenomenon;in geographical zoning,inter-group differences are the primary source of overall differences,while in functional zoning,hypervariable density contributes more significantly.Moreover,internal differences in western China are the most prominent,and inter-group differences show an overall fluctuating downward trend.Third,from the temporal dimension,the kernel density curve continues to shift to the right and the polarization trend weakens;the"frog-jump effect"and spatial spillover effect are intertwined,and the impact of spatial adjacency status on shaping the regional development pattern is particularly profound.Fourth,significant absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence exist nationwide,in the eastern,central and western regions,and among various grain functional zones.Each region converges to its own steady-state level,presenting the diversified convergence characteristics of"spatial linkage,factor coordination,and type differentiation".Based on the heterogeneity of regional development,this paper proposes a path to enhance new-quality agricultural productive forces centered on technological innovation-driven development,green development-led progress,and digital economy-enabled empowerment,providing a scientific basis for relevant decision-making,helping China's agriculture realize the leap from"a large country with small-scale farming"to"a strong agricultural nation",and promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of agriculture.关键词
农业新质生产力/区域差异/收敛性分析/农业强国Key words
new-quality agricultural productive forces/regional differences/convergence analysis/Agricultural powerhouse分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王姗姗,张鑫森..中国农业新质生产力发展水平的区域差异、时空演变及收敛分析[J].重庆文理学院学报（社会科学版）,2026,45(2):1-19,19.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目"高水平开放下中哈边境口岸同便利化研究"(XJEDU2025P098). （XJEDU2025P098）
