中国人口·资源与环境2026，Vol.36Issue(2)：86-98,13.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250908
气候风险对地方政府专项债券发行利差的影响
Impact of climate risk on the issuance spreads of local government special bonds
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of intensifying global warming and frequent extreme climate events,enhancing the capacity to identify and manage climate risk is a prerequisite for building a fiscal and financial policy system adapted to climate change.Special bonds,serving as a crucial link between fiscal policy and financial markets,make the examination of the impact of climate risk on their issu-ance spreads highly significant for optimizing the management mechanism of these bonds to both adapt to climate change and enhance climate resilience.The results showed that:① Climate risk had a significant positive impact on the issuance spreads of special bonds,indicating that heightened climate risk increased the financing costs for local governments issuing these bonds.This result remained ro-bust after a series of robustness tests.② Mechanism tests showed that climate risk drove up the issuance spreads of special bonds by weakening their repayment capacity and increasing investor attention to climate risk.③ Heterogeneity analysis indicated that the im-pact of climate risk on the issuance spreads varied by project attributes and bond maturity.Specifically,climate risk raised the issuance spreads of non-green projects and short-term special bonds more significantly compared to those with funds directed toward green proj-ects and those with longer maturities.④ Further analysis demonstrated that both climate adaptation investments and expectation guid-ance effectively mitigated the adverse effects of climate risk.Increasing fiscal expenditure on disaster prevention and mitigation and en-hancing green financial support were found to stabilize the repayment capacity of the projects funded by the special bonds and the local public finances,thereby alleviating the negative impact of climate risk on the issuance spreads.Meanwhile,raising local governments'attention and emphasis on climate risk helped reduce market investors'negative expectations regarding climate risk,thus cushioning its impact on the issuance spreads.This research verifies the pricing effect of climate risk and its transmission mechanism in the context of special bond issuance,providing empirical support for further improving the issuance and management mechanism of local government special bonds and for building a fiscal and financial support policy system adapted to climate change.关键词
气候风险/极端天气和气候事件/专项债券/发行利差Key words
climate risk/extreme weather and climate events/special bonds/issuance spread分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马恩涛,任海平,代旭..气候风险对地方政府专项债券发行利差的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2026,36(2):86-98,13.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"气候变化'双重风险'对财政韧性影响机制及治理对策研究"(批准号:25AJY014). （批准号:25AJY014）
