灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(2)：30-37,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.02.004
省级突发地质灾害应急预案的量化评价与区域差异研究
Quantitative Evaluation and Regional Differences in Provincial Government Emergency Response Plans for Sudden Geological Disasters in China
摘要
Abstract
The completeness and scientific rigor of provincial-level emergency response plans for sudden geological disasters serve as the institutional cornerstone for regional disaster resilience.However,existing research often overlooks the content characteristics and regional variations of these critical documents.To address this gap,a mixed-method ap-proach combining text mining with the Policy Modeling Consistency(PMC)index model is employed to systematically evaluate 28 effective provincial emergency response plans in China.Utilizing ROST CM6 software,high-frequency key-words are extracted to construct an objective evaluation system comprising 9 primary indicators(e.g.,Early Warning,Emergency Disposal)and 56 secondary indicators.The results indicate:①The average PMC index is 7.15,reflecting generally sound textual quality.However,a significant structural imbalance exists:while plans excel in"Emergency Dis-posal"(X6),they are notably weak in"Post-disaster Recovery"(X7)and"Plan Management"(X9),specifically lack-ing institutionalized mechanisms for assessment and revision.②There is significant regional heterogeneity rooted in a"Dual-Drive"mechanism:High-risk provinces(e.g.,Sichuan,Yunnan)exhibit a significantly higher average PMC(7.31),driven by"Risk-Experience"derived from repeated real-world combat,thus excelling in practical dimensions like early warning response.Conversely,high-governance provinces(e.g.,Beijing,Shanghai)are driven by"Governance-Norms",outperforming in procedural dimensions like organizational command due to superior administra-tive standardization.Consequently,an optimization mechanism integrating"Scientific Logic"and"Practical Inspec-tion"is proposed.Specific strategies include establishing a closed-loop for plan revision and adopting a"Modular+Scenario-based"architecture,which consists of a stable"Core Master Plan"for normative guidance and dynamic"Sce-nario Action Manuals"for tactical flexibility.These findings provide theoretical support and actionable guidance for local governments to enhance both the theoretical rigor and practical operability of emergency plans.关键词
地质灾害/应急预案/政策一致性(PMC)指数/量化评价/区域差异Key words
geological disasters/emergency response plans/Policy Consistency(PMC)index/quantitative evaluation/regional differences分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
郭海湘,郑润杰,何欣宇,代姗姗..省级突发地质灾害应急预案的量化评价与区域差异研究[J].灾害学,2026,41(2):30-37,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"新时代公共安全应急框架体系研究"(23AZD072) （23AZD072）
湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目"复合链生灾害致灾机制与综合风险防控体系研究"(2024AFA015) （2024AFA015）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"山区复合链生灾害风险评估与应急处置研究"(42571359) （42571359）
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目"多灾种视角下区域自然灾害耦合风险测度与韧性治理研究"(25FGLB018) （25FGLB018）
湖南省自然科学基金联合基金重点项目"城市内涝致灾机制与综合风险数智化防控体系研究"(2026JJ30054) （2026JJ30054）
