安徽农业科学2026，Vol.54Issue(6)：183-188,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2026.06.035
粮食生产结构对农业碳汇的影响研究
Study on the Impact of Grain Production Structure on Agricultural Carbon Sinks
摘要
Abstract
Under the background of sustainable agricultural development and climate change response,clarifying the impact of the structure of grain production on agricultural carbon sinks and its mechanism of action is of vital importance for optimizing the layout of grain production,enhancing the capacity of agricultural carbon sinks,and ensuring the coordinated development of food security and the ecological environment.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2023,this paper uses methods such as bidirectional fixed effects regression,with the production and demand structure of staple food as the mediating variable and the multiple cropping index as the moderating variable,to explore the impact of grain production structure on agricultural carbon sinks.The research finds that the imbalance of grain production struc-ture significantly inhibits the increase of agricultural carbon sinks.Moreover,it exerts an indirect inhibitory effect through the supply and de-mand structure path of staple food.Under the imbalance of the grain production structure,the multiple cropping index further inhibits the in-crease of agricultural carbon sinks.Further analysis of regional heterogeneity reveals that the imbalance in the grain production structure be-tween major grain-producing areas and those with balanced production and sales significantly inhibited the increase in agricultural carbon sinks.The grain production structure in major grain-consuming areas is relatively flexible and is greatly influenced by market regulation,which is conducive to the increase of agricultural carbon sinks.Therefore,it is necessary to optimize the structure of grain production,alleviate the con-tradiction between grain production and demand,scientifically regulate the multiple cropping index,and implement regional differentiation strategies.关键词
粮食生产结构/农业碳汇/口粮产需结构/复种指数Key words
Grain production structure/Agricultural carbon sink/The production and demand structure of staple food/Cropping index分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王晓悦,何蒲明..粮食生产结构对农业碳汇的影响研究[J].安徽农业科学,2026,54(6):183-188,6.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(23YJA790027). （23YJA790027）
