北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(1)：21-28,8.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2025063
海南岛台风暴雨道路直接经济损失模拟研究
Typhoon-induced direct economic losses to road infrastructure in Hainan Island
摘要
Abstract
Typhoons are among the most destructive natural hazards threatening road infrastructure in coastal regions.Assessing typhoon-induced road damage is essential for effective reduction of disaster risks.Impacts of typhoon-induced damages of road infrastructure were modeled in this work for Hainan Island.Typhoons Kalmaegi and Sarika were subject to modeling by linear,quadratic,power,exponential,and logistic functions,to show relationship between rainfall hazard indicators(including maximum daily rainfall,average daily rainfall,and total event rainfall)and historical loss data,aiming to identify the most representative indicators for constructing a model of loss assessments.To further validate model reliability,three additional typhoon events(Rammasun,Parma,and Dianmu)were analyzed.Maximum daily rainfall was found to be the most critical factor inflicting road flood damage,with the highest correlation with road losses(correlation coefficient is 0.172).Among the tested models,logistic function provided the best fit simulating road losses,with prediction errors ranging from 6.8％to 50.2％across all three validation typhoon cases.Overall,this study of regional road loss assessment offers scientific support to enhance resilience of road infrastructures to typhoon disasters in Hainan Province.关键词
台风暴雨/道路基础设施/脆弱性分析/损失评估/海南岛Key words
Typhoon-induced rainfall/road infrastructure/vulnerability assessment/economic loss assessment/Hainan Island分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
李雨竹,苏鹏,翟广然,徐伟..海南岛台风暴雨道路直接经济损失模拟研究[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(1):21-28,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3008505) （2023YFC3008505）
