北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(1)：50-64,15.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2025176
考虑地貌差异的西南山区滑坡易发性评价研究
Assessing landslide-susceptibilities with consideration of geomorphic differences in southwest mountainous areas of China
摘要
Abstract
The complex terrains in Southwest China often lead to frequent landslides.Past studies mostly focus on single geomorphic types,overlooking systematic comparison of model applicability and heterogeneity of dominant factors across different geomorphic scenarios.Traditional"black-box"models often struggle to reveal effects of geomorphology on landslides.In this study we establish a"Machine Learning-Geomorphic Zoning-Interpretability"framework for Chengkou county(mountainous),Liangping district(hilly),and Zhongjiang county(low hill-plain).Random forest(RF),XGBoost,and LightGBM algorithms were employed to assess landslide susceptibilities.SHAP method was used to quantitatively evaluate contributing factors under different geomorphic settings.XGBoost model demonstrated strong robustness,achieving best performance in mountainous areas(AUC=0.923),but with slightly lower performance in hilly and plain areas.Geomorphic differences significantly modulated dominant factors.Landslides were found primarily driven by elevation and human activities(POI kernel density,distance to roads)in Chengkou.Lithology and roughness index dominated in Liangping.But rainfall and elevation were key factors in Zhongjiang.In this study we could verify the advantages of SHAP in breaking the"black box"nature of past models.We also elucidated differentiated driving mechanisms of landslide development from a geomorphic perspective.We therefore provide some solid scientific basis for refined disaster prevention in regional landslides.关键词
滑坡易发性评价/地貌差异/XGBoost/随机森林/LightGBM/SHAP/中国西南山区Key words
landslide susceptibility assessment/geomorphic differences/XGBoost/Random Forest/LightGBM/SHAP/southwest mountainous areas of China分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
潘明辰,魏卓君,徐睿辰,朱有晨,张虹,尹红悦,张凤太,密长林..考虑地貌差异的西南山区滑坡易发性评价研究[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(1):50-64,15.基金项目
重庆市自然科学基金资助项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0618) （CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0618）
重庆市教育委员会基金资助项目(KJZD-K202300511) （KJZD-K202300511）
重庆师范大学基金资助项目(22XLB002) （22XLB002）
