北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(1)：88-98,11.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2025068
江汉—洞庭交界水网平原区耕地土壤重金属污染风险评价与累积预测
Risk assessment and accumulation prediction of heavy metal pollution in cultivated land of the Jianghan-Dongting interconnected river-lake plain
摘要
Abstract
Soil pollution of cultivated land is mainly due to heavy metal pollution.Pollution risk by heavy metals Cd,Hg,As,Pb,Cr,Cu,Ni,and Zn in regional cultivated land was evaluated in this work with soil environmental capacity.The amount of heavy metal input from atmospheric deposition,chemical fertilizer application,irrigation water,livestock and poultry manure returning to the field and compound feed in the region was calculated,accumulation prediction was carried out with accumulation law of dynamic environmental capacity.Environmental risk of compound heavy metal pollution in cultivated land in the study area was found to be low,with sufficient environmental capacity.A few points with middle and high environmental risk were identified,but overall the environment was relatively safe.For individual heavy metals,As and Cd had the greatest risk of pollution,with some points showing pollution.The risks of Hg,Pb,Cu and Zn were found to be generally controllable,with only a few points showing medium and high risks.The risk levels of Cr and Ni were found the lowest,either risk-free or of low risk.The annual input of cultivated land in the study area was as follows:Cd 6.393 g·hm-2,Hg 0.965 g·hm-2,As 77.712 g·hm-2,Pb 258.732 g·hm-2,Cr 61.729 g·hm-2,Cu 375.654 g·hm-2,Ni 40.916 g·hm-2,Zn 1 448.796 g·hm-2.Predictive modeling showed that accumulated concentrations of all heavy metals over the next 5,10,20,30,50,and 100 years would remain below the risk threshold,suggesting a persistently low overall risk.Projections of spatial distribution for As and Cd accumulation over these timeframes revealed a gradual increase in pollution risk with time.Atmospheric deposition,irrigation water,livestock and poultry manure,and compound feed were identified as the primary input pathways.关键词
耕地/重金属/环境容量/风险评价/累积预测Key words
cultivated land/heavy metals/environmental capacity/risk assessment/cumulative prediction分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
张朋,李春诚,吴殷琪,王周航..江汉—洞庭交界水网平原区耕地土壤重金属污染风险评价与累积预测[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(1):88-98,11.基金项目
湖北省地质局民生地质资助项目(MSDZ202519) （MSDZ202519）
