北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(1)：122-133,12.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2025098
基于不同基流分割方法的北洛河流域基流演变分析及归因
Analysis and attribution of baseflow evolution in the Beiluo River basin by different baseflow segmentation methods
摘要
Abstract
The aim of this work was to explore the characteristics of baseflow evolution in the Beiluo River basin,to identify the dominant factors affecting baseflow changes,and to provide some scientific basis for water resource management in the basin.The hydrometeorological data and vegetation data of the Beiluo River basin from 1982 to 2020 were used,applicability of a total of seven baseflow segmentation methods,including time-step methods(FI,SI,LM),digital filtering methods(Lyne-Hollick,Chapman,Chapman-Maxwell,and Eckhardt),were compared.The trend mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to explore evolution of baseflow,the elasticity coefficient method combined with least squares method was used to quantitatively assess relative contribution of climate change and vegetation cover to baseflow changes.Among the seven baseflow partitioning methods,the Lyne-Hollick filtering method(multi-year average BFI=0.447,NSE=0.927,R2=0.836,MRE=9.93％)was found to have the highest estimation accuracy,and the partitioning results reflected the stability and lag of baseflow well,and the daily baseflow process line was more in line with the actual characteristics.The intra-annual baseflow of the basin is characterized by a bimodal distribution pattern,while the annual baseflow showed a decreasing trend(-0.14 mm·a-1),but a sudden change occurred in 2004.The cyclic change of baseflow was found to be controlled by the first main cycle(23 a),the baseflow showed a continuous decreasing trend in the future.Increase in NDVI was a dominant factor(contribution rate of 62.82％),increase in potential evapotranspiration(contribution rate of 27.08％)and decrease in precipitation(contribution rate of 9.71％)also played a role in the decrease of baseflow.These data provide scientific support for sustainable management of water resources and construction of ecological civilization in the Beiluo River basin.关键词
基流/基流分割/植被覆盖/气候变化/归因分析Key words
baseflow/baseflow separation/vegetation cover/climate change/attribution analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘潇,丁兵兵,冯泳翰,余新晓,贾国栋,张梦凡..基于不同基流分割方法的北洛河流域基流演变分析及归因[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(1):122-133,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243202) （U2243202）
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFF1300804) （2022YFF1300804）
