创新科技2026，Vol.26Issue(4)：49-63,15.DOI:10.19345/j.cxkj.1671-0037.2026.4.5
中国低碳经济与科技创新耦合协调的时空演化及影响因素
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Cou-pling Coordination Between Low-Carbon Economy and Technological Innovation in China
摘要
Abstract
Under the dual-carbon goals,a low-carbon economy empowers technological in-novation,while technological innovation,in turn,drives the development of a low-carbon economy,both serving as core pathways for achieving sustainable development in China.Based on panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions spanning 2011 to 2023,this study first constructs indicator systems for assessing low-carbon economy and technological innova-tion,and applies the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to quantify them.Subsequently,a cou-pling coordination degree model is employed to evaluate the coupling coordination level between low-carbon economy and technological innovation,with descriptive analysis conducted on the re-sults.Further,the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method and spatial autocorrelation models are utilized to examine spatial disparities and spatial autocorrelation in the coupling coor-dination.Finally,a spatial Durbin model is adopted to investigate the influencing factors.The findings reveal that:①The coupling coordination degree between low-carbon economy and tech-nological innovation has exhibited a continuous upward trend across provinces over time,yet growth rates display a tiered pattern—fastest in the eastern region,followed by the central,north-eastern,and western regions.Spatially,a three-tier structure has emerged:the eastern region as the upper tier,the central region as the middle tier,and the western and northeastern regions as the lower tier,demonstrating a diffusion trend from the eastern core to peripheral regions.②Sig-nificant spatial disparities exist in the coupling coordination,with an overall Gini coefficient that has been expanding,primarily driven by inter-regional differences,followed by intra-regional disparities,and with hypervariable density contributing the least.③The coupling coordination exhibits significant positive spatial autocorrelation,characterized by high-high agglomeration in the eastern region and low-low agglomeration in the western region.④Regarding influencing factors,the economic development level,technology market activity,and fiscal support exert positive effects on both local and neighboring regions'coupling coordination.The financial de-velopment level and the Theil index positively influence the local region but show no significant impact on neighboring areas.Energy structure has no significant local effect but exhibits a posi-tive spillover effect on neighboring regions.Based on these findings,this study proposes three policy recommendations:first,establishing a cross-regional collaborative development mecha-nism for low-carbon economy and technological innovation to address structural imbalances be-tween core and peripheral regions;second,optimizing the spatial layout and energy coordination of coupling coordination to amplify spatial spillover effects;third,tailoring key driving factors to local conditions to enhance endogenous momentum for coupling coordination.关键词
低碳经济/科技创新/耦合协调度模型/时空演化/空间杜宾模型/区域差异/驱动因素/可持续发展Key words
low-carbon economy/technological innovation/coupling coordination degree model/spatiotemporal evolution/spatial Durbin model/regional disparity/driving factors/sus-tainable development分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
潘启东,殷可龙,张永恒..中国低碳经济与科技创新耦合协调的时空演化及影响因素[J].创新科技,2026,26(4):49-63,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"数智变革下区域产业体系优势互补的机理与路径研究"(25BJY045). （25BJY045）
