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Climate change projections in Central Asia based on the CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ high-resolution simulations

Yanjin Mao Ping Li Xianchun Chen Libin Huang Xiaorui Niu

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2026，Vol.19Issue(2)：28-34,7.

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2026，Vol.19Issue(2)：28-34,7.DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100660

Climate change projections in Central Asia based on the CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ high-resolution simulations

Yanjin Mao ¹Ping Li ¹Xianchun Chen ¹Libin Huang ¹Xiaorui Niu²

作者信息

1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,China
2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,China||Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards,Wuhan,China
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摘要

Abstract

本文基于CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ中的多区域气候模式(RCMs)对中亚未来气候变化进行预估分析.结果表明,所有RCM均能再现温度和降水的主要气候态分布及极端事件,其中REMO在温度相关指标模拟方面表现更好,而Alaro-0在降水相关指标方面更具优势,且多模式集合平均(MME)结果优于单个RCM.在RCP2.6和RCP8.5排放情景下,除日较差外,中亚地区的温度相关指标均呈现出一致的上升趋势,而年均降水变化的空间分布也较为相似,高纬度地区增幅最为显著.此外,在RCP8.5情景下,连续干燥日数预计将略有增加,而在RCP2.6情景下则略有减少.

关键词

中亚/CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ/区域气候模式/气候预估

Key words

Central Asia/CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ/RCMs/Climate projections

引用本文复制引用

Yanjin Mao,Ping Li,Xianchun Chen,Libin Huang,Xiaorui Niu..Climate change projections in Central Asia based on the CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ high-resolution simulations[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2026,19(2):28-34,7.

基金项目

This study was jointly supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant num-ber 2019QZKK0103],the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42293294],and the China Meteorological Admin-istration Climate Change Special Program[grant number QBZ202303]. （）

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

ISSN：1674-2834

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