广东电力2026，Vol.39Issue(3)：20-30,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2026.03.003
广东电力行业碳排放测算方法及时空演变特性
Calculation Method and Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Emissions in Guangdong Power Industry
摘要
Abstract
The power industry,being the largest carbon emitter industry in China,plays a pivotal role in achieving the national dual-carbon goals by means of low carbon transition.However,systematic research on carbon emissions remains scarce,and existing studies often inadequately account for cross-regional electricity interaction and lack city-level analysis,failing to fully reveal the spatiotemporal evolution and migration patterns of power-related carbon emissions.To address these gaps,this study develops provincial and municipal carbon emission calculation models that incorporate inter-regional electricity flows.Using these models,the actual carbon emissions and emission intensity of the power industry in Guangdong province and its 21 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2022 are calculated.Subsequently,the slope analysis,Moran's I index and a carbon emission center migration model is used to elucidate the overall temporal trends,spatial patterns,spatial autocorrelation,and migration trajectory of the emission center.The results indicate that carbon emissions exhibit a stepwise growth trend,while emission intensity shows an overall decline.Emissions demonstrate significant global spatial positive correlation,with spatial agglomeration intensifying over time.Locally,low-emission clusters are located in eastern and western Guangdong,whereas high-emission clusters are concentrated in the core Pearl River Delta.Low-emission islands,primarily surrounding high-emission clusters,have decreased rapidly,with no high-emission islands observed.The carbon emission center is situated in central-southern Guangdong,displaying a"northeast-southwest"spatial pattern.It exhibits a trend of north-south centripetal aggregation and east-west divergence in time,with its center of gravity located near the Guangzhou-Dongguan boundary and slowly shifting southwest.关键词
电力行业碳排放/碳排放测算/时空演变特性/中心区迁移模型Key words
power industry carbon emission/carbon emission calculation/spatiotemporal characteristic/central region migration model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨韵,李东颖,赵越,左剑,李凯,朱建全..广东电力行业碳排放测算方法及时空演变特性[J].广东电力,2026,39(3):20-30,11.基金项目
中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目[036000KC23110011(GDKJXM20231193)] （GDKJXM20231193）
