腹腔镜外科杂志2026，Vol.31Issue(2)：128-135,8.DOI:10.13499/j.cnki.fqjwkzz.2026.02.128
腹腔镜手术中患儿发生低体温列线图预测模型的构建与验证
Construction and validation of a nomogram prediction model for intraoperative hypothermia in pediatric laparoscopic patients
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of intraoperative hypothermia in children undergoing laparoscopic sur-gery,and to construct and validate a nomogram prediction model.Methods:By convenience sampling,450 children who underwent lapa-roscopic surgery and met the inclusion criteria from Dec.2024 to Jun.2025 were prospectively selected as the research subjects.They were randomly divided into a training set(n=360)and a validation set(ne=90)at a ratio of 8∶2.Multivariate logistic regression analy-sis was used to identify the influencing factors of intraoperative hypothermia in children undergoing laparoscopic surgery,and R software was used to construct a nomogram prediction model.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model in the training set and validation set,respec-tively.Results:Among the 450 children,67 cases had intraoperative hypothermia,with an incidence of 14.89％.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that core body temperature on admission(OR=0.012),operation time(OR=1.012),average humidity in the operation room(OR=1.117),and average temperature in the operation room(OR=0.589)were influencing factors of intraopera-tive hypothermia in children undergoing laparoscopic surgery(P＜0.05).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram model in the training set was 0.895(95％CI=0.849～0.941),and the result of Hosmer-Lemeshow test was x2=7.818,P=0.452;in the validation set,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.907(95％CI=0.834～0.980),and the result of Hosmer-Lemeshow test was x2=4.558,P=0.804.Conclusions:The nomogram prediction model for intraoperative hypother-mia in children undergoing laparoscopic surgery has good predictive performance and can provide a reference for medical workers to ear-ly identify children at high risk of intraoperative hypothermia.关键词
腹腔镜检查/术中低体温/影响因素分析/列线图/预测模型/儿童Key words
Laparoscopy/Intraoperative hypothermia/Root cause analysis/Nomograms/Prediction model/Child分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
蓝煌禄,张思瑶,张洁,程明江,金春玉..腹腔镜手术中患儿发生低体温列线图预测模型的构建与验证[J].腹腔镜外科杂志,2026,31(2):128-135,8.基金项目
哈尔滨医科大学研究生科研和实践创新项目(YJSCX2024-124HYD) （YJSCX2024-124HYD）
