海洋开发与管理2026，Vol.43Issue(1)：26-53,28.
基于动态演化博弈的海上风电空间冲突根源解析
A Dynamic Evolutionary Game Analysis of Spatial Conflicts in Offshore Wind Power Development
摘要
Abstract
Wind energy constitutes a core component of renewable energy systems.Over the past decade,China's cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power has grown exponentially.However,the rapid expansion driven by successive"rush-to-install"waves has placed national regulators under mounting pressure from competing sea-use demands and spatial conflicts,thereby triggering disputes among multiple stakeholders.This study introduces a multi-agent evolutionary game framework into the governance of offshore wind power development and constructs a tripartite dynamic interaction model involving the government,wind power enterprises,and coastal farmers.The model systematically examines the mechanisms of interest coordination in offshore wind development,with the aim of reducing social conflicts and achieving benefit synergies.The results indicate that:(1)In the early stages of offshore wind power development,in the absence of effective coordination mechanisms,wind power enterprises tend to suppress compensation levels in pursuit of short-term profits;governments exhibit insufficient regulatory incentives because social benefits have not yet fully emerged;and farmers remain in a disadvantaged position due to information asymmetry,limited capacity to provide evidence,and deficiencies in the fulfillment of social responsibilities by other actors.Under these conditions,the three parties are prone to becoming locked into a"non-cooperative conflict"equilibrium.(2)Social benefit levels,corporate reputational losses,and farmers'rights-protection costs are the key drivers influencing the evolution of conflicts.An increase in social benefits significantly enhances governmental regulatory willingness;when corporate reputational disutility or litigation risk exceeds a critical threshold,enterprises shift from a"low compensation"to a"high-compensation"strategy;and the level of farmers'rights-protection costs directly determines whether they choose to pursue legal or administrative remedies.(3)By establishing a regulatory framework that emphasizes penalties while supplemented by incentives,clarifying graded penalty standards,and incorporating ecological constraints into enterprise evaluation systems,enterprises can be effectively encouraged to fulfill compensation obligations,thereby achieving Pareto optimality and a win-win-win outcome for all three parties.关键词
海上风电/演化博弈/冲突解决/三方共赢Key words
Offshore wind power/Evolutionary game/Conflict resolution/Triple win分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
田鹏,蒋霞,顾波军,付雨芳..基于动态演化博弈的海上风电空间冲突根源解析[J].海洋开发与管理,2026,43(1):26-53,28.基金项目
国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD152) （22&ZD152）
国家社科基金一般项目(24BGL222) （24BGL222）
浙江省哲学社会科学规划"高校基本科研业务费改革"专项课题(25NDJC099YBMS) （25NDJC099YBMS）
2023年浙江省省属高校基本科研业务费项目(2023Y008). （2023Y008）
