电力工程技术2026，Vol.45Issue(4)：112-122,11.DOI:10.12158/j.2096-3203.2026.04.012
机理-数据双驱的变压器改进热路模型和热点温度计算
Improved thermal circuit model and hot spot temperature calculation of oil-immersed transformer based on mechanism-data-driven approaches
摘要
Abstract
Transformers are susceptible to insulation aging and failure under high temperature and overload conditions,which affects the normal operation of the power system.The winding hot spot temperature is a key factor in evaluating transformer load capacity,but it is challenging to measure directly.To accurately calculate the hot spot temperature,a new thermal circuit model is developed based on the thermoelectric analogy principle,considering the effects of external environmental factors,internal nonlinear thermal resistance,and oil viscosity.This model integrates traditional mechanism analysis with a data-driven method and employs an improved differential evolution algorithm,which uses population initialization and adaptive mutation factor based on prior knowledge.The fourth-order Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the differential equation of the thermal circuit model,with the 180 MV·A/220 kV transformer from a substation in southern China as a case study.The calculated hot spot temperature is compared with the measured values,and the determination coefficient of the proposed model reaches 0.84,showing an improvement of 14.60%and 5.53%over the IEEE and Susa models,respectively.The comparison demonstrates that the proposed mechanism-data fusion thermal circuit model offers significant advantages and enhances the accuracy of hot spot temperature calculation for oil-immersed transformer windings.关键词
油浸式变压器/热电类比/改进差分进化算法/机理-数据联合驱动/热路模型/绕组热点温度Key words
oil-immersed transformer/thermoelectric analogy/improved differential evolution algorithm/mechanism-data-driven approaches/thermal circuit model/winding hot spot temperature分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
毛雅婷,权浩,孙新宇..机理-数据双驱的变压器改进热路模型和热点温度计算[J].电力工程技术,2026,45(4):112-122,11.基金项目
江苏省自然科学基金资助项目"计及多时空尺度下可再生能源相关性的随机鲁棒型储能选址定容研究"(BK20211195) （BK20211195）
