结核与肺部疾病杂志2026，Vol.7Issue(2)：162-170,9.DOI:10.19983/j.issn.2096-8493.20250117
2011-2024年上海市徐汇区学校肺结核空间异质性及风险因素分析
Analysis of spatial heterogeneity and risk factors of tuberculosis in schools in Xuhui District,Shanghai from 2011 to 2024
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To determine the high-risk hotspots and spatial risk factors of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)incidence in schools in Xuhui District of Shanghai,to provide scientific evidence for implementing regional and location-based precise prevention and control,rationally allocating health resources,and improving the PTB prevention and control strategy in schools.Methods:To collect data regarding the reported incidence of schools in Xuhui District of Shanghai from 2011 to 2024 from the"Tuberculosis Surveillance Report Information Management System",a subsystem of the"China Disease Prevention and Control Information System",and combine it with the real-time school PTB data registered by staff of Xuhui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2018 to 2024.We adopted spatial auto-correlation and kernel density analysis and Bayesian methods to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of school PTB incidence in Xuhui District,and to depict hot spots of PTB incidence,as well as spatial distributions.Results:A total of 344 PTB cases were reported in Xuhui District from 2011 to 2024,aged mainly 16-26 years old.The annural average reported incidence rate was 13.43 per 100 000.88.95％(306/344)were college students,37.50％(129/344)had patient delay.Kernel density and local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that Lingyun,Fenglin,Kangjian,and Changqiao Streets were high-incidence areas of tuberculosis.The number of reported cases were 107 cases(31.10％,107/344),61 cases(17.73％,61/344),38 cases(11.05％,38/344),and 23 cases(6.69％,23/344)respectively.The hot-spot areas of incidence were the southwestern part of Xuhui District(Lingyun,Changqiao,and Kangjian Streets,with annual average incidence rates of 31.79 per 100 000,31.51 per 100 000,and 30.45 per 100 000,respectively),and no cold-spot areas were detected.The density of population of college students(OR=1.357,95％CI:1.179-1.538)was risk factor for the incidence of PTB in schools in Xuhui District.Conclusion:There is spatial heterogeneity in the incidence of PTB in schools in Xuhui District.The areas with a high incidence of PTB are Lingyun,Fenglin,Kangjian,and Changqiao Streets,and the hotspots are mainly distributed in Lingyun,Changqiao and Huajing Streets.The density of population of college students is spatial influencing factors of PTB incidence in schools.关键词
学生/结核,肺/预防和控制/因素分析,统计学/小地区分析Key words
Students/Tuberculosis,pulmonary/prevention and control/Factor analysis,statistical/Small-area analysis分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
苏晴,张赛男,旃鹤,蔡晓峰,张爽,张博淑,杨美霞..2011-2024年上海市徐汇区学校肺结核空间异质性及风险因素分析[J].结核与肺部疾病杂志,2026,7(2):162-170,9.基金项目
上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2023-2025年)重点学科(GWVI-11.1-05,GWVI-11.1-07) Key Disciplines of the Three-Year Action Plan for Strengthening Public Health System Construction in Shanghai(2023-2025)(GWVI-11.1-05,GWVI-11.1-07) （2023-2025年）
