净水技术2026，Vol.45Issue(3)：114-122,9.DOI:10.15890/j.cnki.jsjs.2026.03.011
基于蒙特卡洛模拟法的活性污泥2d号模型参数敏感性分析
Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters for Activated Sludge Model No.2d
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To address the issues of numerous parameters and high uncertainty in the activated sludge model No.2d(ASM2d),this paper conducts a parameter sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters,reduce the complexity of model calibration,and provide a basis for process simulation,calibration,and optimization.[Methods]Based on an anaerobic-anoxic-oxic(AAO)process in a wastewater treatment plant(WWTP),an ASM2d model for the biological treatment section was constructed in this paper.Monte Carlo simulation combined with Latin Hypercube Sampling was employed to perform a global sensitivity analysis on 39 selected model parameters.The influence of different simulation run counts on the analysis result was investigated,and the impact degree of parameters on various effluent indices was quantified using standardized regression coefficients.[Results]When the number of simulation runs reached more than 156,the number and ranking of sensitive parameters tended to stabilize.Among them,the heterotrophic yield coefficient had a significant impact on the simulation result of chemical oxygen demand(COD)removal and sludge concentration.The autotrophic maximum growth rate and the ammonium half-saturation coefficient dominated the simulation of ammonia nitrogen removal.The simulation of total phosphorus removal was mainly influenced by parameters such as the reduction factor for hydrolysis of particulate organic matter under anaerobic conditions and the hydrolysis rate of polyphosphate.[Conclusion]Monte Carlo simulation can be used to systematically identify key parameters in the ASM2d model.It is recommended to use a simulation count no less than five times the number of parameters in practical applications to ensure the stability of the analysis.The result of this paper can provide a reference method for model parameter calibration and uncertainty quantification.关键词
活性污泥模型/蒙特卡洛模拟/全局敏感性分析/不确定性量化/参数率定Key words
activated sludge model/Monte Carlo simulation/global sensitivity analysis/uncertainty quantification/parameter calibration分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
祝嘉禄,马艳..基于蒙特卡洛模拟法的活性污泥2d号模型参数敏感性分析[J].净水技术,2026,45(3):114-122,9.基金项目
上海城投水务(集团)有限公司科研项目(KY.WB.25.007) （集团）
