能源环境保护2026，Vol.40Issue(2)：102-115,14.DOI:10.20078/j.eep.20260319
融合历史过程与未来工况的污泥热解气化废气排放动态预测
Dynamic Prediction of Sludge Pyrolysis–Gasification Exhaust Emissions by Integrating Historical Processes and Future Operating Conditions
摘要
Abstract
The pyrolysis–gasification process has emerged as a cutting-edge technology for sludge treatment and disposal because of its resource-recovery potential and high efficiency.However,the emissions of harmful gases such as SO2 during operation limit the widespread adoption of this technology.Achieving accurate emission prediction and optimizing process parameters to improve both economic and environmental performance are therefore crucial.In this study,we used a high-resolution industrial dataset of 106 variables and 64,801 minute-level records collected continuously over a 45-day operational period at a full-scale plant.We developed a comprehensive time-series prediction framework that integrates historical process records with future operating conditions.The predictive performance of representative algorithms—including XGBoost,CatBoost,NLinear,and the Temporal Fusion Transformer(TFT)—was systematically evaluated and validated.Experimental results show that the proposed multi-source time-series prediction framework,which accounts for process dynamics and lag effects,is essential for modeling complex industrial gasification processes.Among the tested models,CatBoost performed best,achieving a mean absolute error(MAE)of 269.17 and a coefficient of determination(R2)of 76.53％.To assess the reliability of these results for production guidance,we compared the framework with a traditional non-temporal cross-sectional baseline model.The baseline attained an R2 of 22.51％and an MAE of 542.20.Thus,the proposed framework improved the R2 by 54.02 percentage points and reduced the MAE by 50.36％,indicating that traditional models fail to capture critical temporal correlations and the delayed response of pollutant generation to control inputs.In contrast,the proposed framework effectively leverages historical inertia and future setpoints to provide robust,actionable insights for industrial regulation.By combining interpretability tools such as SHAP and ALE with process knowledge,we identified the complex nonlinear factors affecting SO2 concentration fluctuations.The interpretability analysis reveals a high sensitivity of emissions to temperature gradients,suggesting that coordinated control of the gasification and combustion stages is key to emission suppression.Specifically,the results indicate that optimizing steam pressure to approximately 0.28 – 0.30 MPa,gasifier outlet temperature to about 100 – 160 ℃,and combustion furnace temperature to about 800 – 900 ℃ can maximize resource recovery while effectively reducing SO2 emissions.In conclusion,by integrating process mechanisms with advanced data-driven analysis,this study achieves precise emission prediction and operational optimization for sludge gasification and provides a generalizable methodology for intelligent modeling of other dynamic industrial systems.关键词
污泥热解气化/时序预测/机器学习/可解释分析/实时排放控制Key words
Sludge pyrolysis–gasification/Time-series prediction/Machine learning/Interpretability analysis/Real-time emission control分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
黄强,张欢,曲申..融合历史过程与未来工况的污泥热解气化废气排放动态预测[J].能源环境保护,2026,40(2):102-115,14.基金项目
国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(52425005) （52425005）
国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(52370189) （52370189）
国家自然科学基金重大资助项目(52595722) （52595722）
