南京师大学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.49Issue(2)：1-10,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2026.02.001
养老产业与旅游产业融合发展的系统动力学仿真研究
System Dynamics Simulation Study on the Integrated Development of the Elderly Care Industry and the Tourism Industry
摘要
Abstract
The integrated development of the elderly care industry and the tourism industry is a complex dynamic process facing numerous challenges to its healthy progression.This paper divides the integration system of these two industries into four subsystems:demand,supply,intermediation,and support.A system dynamics model is constructed,utilizing the elderly population,direct employment figures,revenue from the elderly tourism industry,and GDP as validation variables.The model's validity is verified through simulation,and the integration process along with the impact of the external environment are simulated using 17 core indicators.By adjusting the proportions of industrial investment,science and technology expenditure,culture/tourism/sports/media expenditure,public security expenditure,transportation expenditure,elderly welfare expenditure,health expenditure,scientific education expenditure,and ecological environment expenditure,this paper comparatively analyzes the differences between the natural evolution mode and four other modes:government regulation-led,industrial investment-led,market demand-led,and coordinated development and integration.The results indicate that market demand,industrial investment,and policy regulation are key drivers promoting the integration of the two industries.The coordinated development and integration mode proves to be the most effective path for achieving overall system optimization.This paper provides multi-faceted improvement strategies for the integrated development of the elderly care and tourism industries.关键词
养老产业/旅游产业/融合发展/系统动力学模型Key words
elderly care industry/tourism industry/integrated development/system dynamics model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈雪钧,袁梦灵..养老产业与旅游产业融合发展的系统动力学仿真研究[J].南京师大学报（自然科学版）,2026,49(2):1-10,10.基金项目
2025年重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(25SKGH094)、重庆市教育科学"十四五"规划课题项目(K24YD2070038)、中国高等教育学会"2024年度高等教育科学研究规划课题"项目(24CX0404). （25SKGH094）
