全球能源互联网2026，Vol.9Issue(2)：226-236,11.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.20240253
考虑"双碳"目标影响的工业负荷演化趋势分析方法
Analysis Method for Industrial Load Evolution Trend Considering Dual Carbon Goals
摘要
Abstract
In the process of implementing the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,accurately analyzing the evolution trend of industrial load serves as a crucial foundation for developing energy transformation strategy.To this end,a method considering the impact of the dual carbon goals is proposed to analyze the evolution trend of industrial load.The main dual carbon policies in China were sorted out and their underlying mechanisms affecting the evolution trend of industrial load were analyzed.The analytic hierarchy process is used to quantify the impact of different dual carbon factors and to screen out the key factors that dominate the trend of industrial load evolution.A combined model based on the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)and system dynamics(SD)is established to analyze the evolution trend of industrial loads,taking into account the impact of the dual carbon goals and the periodic temporal characteristics of industrial load sequences.Taking the data of the steel industry in a province as an example,the evolution trends of electricity load and carbon dioxide emissions are analyzed,verifying the effectiveness of the proposed SARIMA-SD combined model.The case study results indicate that from 2024 to 2060,industrial load and carbon emissions are expected to exhibit a general downward trend due to the implementation of dual carbon policies.However,achieving the goal of carbon neutrality still necessitates concerted efforts in employing technologies such as carbon capture and storage.关键词
工业负荷/演化趋势/"双碳"目标/时间序列/系统动力学Key words
industrial load/evolution trend/dual carbon goals/time series/system dynamics分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
郑雅睿,曹永吉,张恒旭,李常刚..考虑"双碳"目标影响的工业负荷演化趋势分析方法[J].全球能源互联网,2026,9(2):226-236,11.基金项目
智能电网国家科技重大专项(2024200801100) （2024200801100）
国家自然科学基金(52177096).Smart-Grid National Science and Technology Major Project(2024200801100) （52177096）
National Natural Science Foundation of China(52177096). （52177096）
