全球能源互联网2026，Vol.9Issue(2)：277-285,9.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.20250136
碳中和目标下中国完全可再生能源电力系统建模研究
Modeling of a Fully Renewable Power System in China Under the Carbon Neutrality Target
摘要
Abstract
Advancing the low-carbon transition of the power system is crucial for achieving the carbon neutrality target by 2060.However,existing studies mostly focus on gradually increasing the share of renewable energy,with limited exploration on how to completely eliminate fossil fuels and achieve the feasibility of a fully renewable power system.This study,based on the Global Energy System Model(GENeSYS-MOD)framework,combines the characteristics of China's provincial power systems to construct an integrated power system model,assessing pathways to realize a fully renewable power system under various technology combinations,policy backgrounds,and economic conditions.The results show that by 2050,the total installed capacity of China's power system will reach 10,000 GW,with wind and solar power accounting for more than two-thirds of the generation,while hydropower and biomass provide stable supplementary support.Although achieving a fully renewable power system requires significant additional investment in renewable generation,long-term operational costs show economic viability with technological advancements and the development of energy storage systems.Through optimizing power transmission and storage technologies,a fully renewable power system can operate stably and efficiently,providing a feasible pathway for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal.关键词
可再生能源电力系统/低碳转型/中国/碳中和Key words
renewable power system/low-carbon transition/China/carbon neutrality分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
王天鹏,熊威,叶璇,刘晓光..碳中和目标下中国完全可再生能源电力系统建模研究[J].全球能源互联网,2026,9(2):277-285,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFB1903100) （2022YFB1903100）
国家自然科学基金(72304167).National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFB1903100) （72304167）
National Natural Science Foundation of China(72304167). （72304167）
