气象2026，Vol.52Issue(3)：337-347,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.010501
福建对流体霰粒子层厚度特征与地闪初生关系研究
Relationship Between Graupel Particle Layer Thickness of Convective Storms and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Initiation in Fujian Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on the dual-polarization radar particle classification products and cloud-to-ground lightning location data from Fuzhou,Xiamen and Longyan from April 2022 to June 2024,in this study we select 54 convective storm samples with or without cloud-to-ground lightning and investigate the temporal variation characteristics of graupel particle layer thickness during the developing processes of these samples.The re-sults show that the graupel particle layer thickness of convective storms with cloud-to-ground lightning reaches at least 2.26 km at the initiation moment of the first cloud-to-ground lightning,while 95％of the samples without cloud-to-ground lightning,have graupel particle layer thickness less than 2.2 km through-out their lifecycles.Considering both the lead time and accuracy of cloud-to-ground lightning initiation forecasts,we propose to use a graupel particle layer thickness greater than 2 km as a forecast indicator for cloud-to-ground lightning initiation in Fujian Province.The forecast potential is evaluated,and the calcu-lated TS score of the sample is 0.864 and the average forecast lead time is 28.13 min.Taking four convec-tive storms on 14 June 2022 in southern Fujian Province as examples,the above-mentioned forecast indica-tors are applied and analyzed in these cases.The results show that the proposed forecast indicator can ac-curately forecast whether cloud-to-ground lightning will occur in the four convective storms,and the fore-cast lead time for cloud-to-ground lightning initiation is 6 min.关键词
地闪初生/霰粒子/双偏振雷达/对流体Key words
cloud-to-ground lightning initiation/graupel particle/dual-polarization radar/convective storm分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张烨方,吴启树,李婷婷,冯真祯,刘冰,黄玲光,何清芳,廖廓..福建对流体霰粒子层厚度特征与地闪初生关系研究[J].气象,2026,52(3):337-347,11.基金项目
福建省自然科学基金项目(2025J011224、2023J011335)、福建省自然科学基金社会发展引导性(重点)项目(2025Y0064)、福建省科技重大专项(2024YZ040025)、福建省气象局开放式气象科学研究基金项目(2023KJ04)和厦门市科技局自然科学基金项目(20241303)共同资助 （2025J011224、2023J011335）
