首都经济贸易大学学报2026，Vol.28Issue(2)：51-68,18.DOI:10.13504/j.cnki.issn1008-2700.2026.02.005
数字金融发展能够提升城市经济韧性吗
Can Digital Finance Development Enhance Urban Economic Resilience?
摘要
Abstract
Amid the current wave of digitalization sweeping the globe,digital finance has become a key driver for enhancing urban economic resilience.Based on panel data from 222 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2021,this paper employs an algorithm-optimized counterfactual model to measure urban economic re-silience.By integrating a two-way fixed effects model with interpretable machine learning methods,this paper em-pirically investigates the impact of digital finance development on urban economic resilience and its underlying mechanisms.This paper finds that digital finance development significantly improves urban economic resilience,which remains robust after a series of endogeneity tests and robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effects are more pronounced in cities with higher levels of digi-talization,exhibiting significant volatility characteristics.The eastern,central,and western regions of China are at mature,advanced,and initial stages of digital finance development,respectively.The central region exhibits a stronger positive impact on urban economic resilience compared to the eastern and western regions.Further analysis suggests a potential nonlinear relationship between digital finance development and urban economic resilience.Spe-cifically,when a city's Digital Inclusive Finance index exceeds the threshold range of 200～220,the impact coeffi-cient shifts from negative to positive. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that digital finance development enhances urban economic resilience through several transmission mechanisms,including the adjustment of industrial agglomeration,the empowerment of human capital,and the optimization of economic structures.These mechanisms effectively mitigate the effects of uncertain-ty shocks,acting as a"regulator"at different stages before and after such shocks.During crisis periods,digital fi-nance assists economic systems in contracting and defending against shocks,while in the recovery phase,it pro-vides support for expansion and growth.By responding to the essential needs of the economic system at various sta-ges,digital finance ultimately strengthens urban economic resilience. Differentiated development strategies should be adopted based on the urban economic structure and the specific stage of digital finance development.Policymakers must dynamically adjust support policies to accommodate the e-volving landscape of digital finance,ensuring that policy interventions remain effective and targeted across different phases of urban development.Promoting high-quality development in the digital finance sector is essential for sus-taining its positive effects on urban economies,including strengthening digital infrastructure,improving financial regulatory capacity,and actively fostering fintech innovation.Through these coordinated measures,cities can more effectively harness the full potential of digital finance to navigate global economic uncertainty and achieve long-term stability.关键词
数字金融/城市经济韧性/产业集聚/人力资本/经济结构Key words
digital finance/urban economic resilience/industrial agglomeration/human capital/economic structures分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王璇,葛新权..数字金融发展能够提升城市经济韧性吗[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2026,28(2):51-68,18.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"多源数据融合下数字金融风险监测与防范机制研究"(23BGL091) （23BGL091）
中国社会科学院大学研究生"科研创新支持计划"项目"数字金融发展对区域经济韧性的影响研究"(2025-KYY-082) （2025-KYY-082）
中国社会科学院大学二十大重大专项课题"实体经济与虚拟经济背离中的'脱实向虚'现象及其治理研究"(校20230013) （校20230013）
