大气科学学报2026，Vol.49Issue(2)：349-358,10.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20250114001
基于ECMWF模式降水预报的地形订正方法在川西高原东坡过渡带的应用评估
Evaluation of a terrain correction method for precipitation forecasts based on the ECMWF model in the eastern slope transitional zone of the western Sichuan Plateau
摘要
Abstract
To address the limitations of global numerical models in forecasting the location and intensity of heavy precipitation in complex terrain regions,this study applies a terrain correction method originally developed for the southwest center WRF ADAS real-time modeling system(SWCWARMS,abbreviated as SWC)to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)global numerical forecast model(hereafter referred to as the EC model).Through a series of sensitivity experiments—including topographic nullification and altitude re-setting—this method adjusts the EC model's terrain data and three-hourly forecasted meteorological fields(wind,precipitation,and relative humidity)initialized at 08:00 BST each day.The procedure quantitatively estimates the increase or decrease in precipitation induced by topographic effects,thereby enhancing the EC model's precipitati-on forecasts in mountainous regions.To evaluate the effectiveness of this method,the corrected EC precipitation forecasts were applied to the topographic transition zone along the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau in Sichuan during the flood seasons(June-August)of 2021-2022.A total of 31 heavy precipitation events were analyzed through daily verification and statistical assessment.The results demonstrate that the threat score(TS)for various precipitation intensities improved substantially after terrain correction.Relative to the uncorrected EC model fore-casts,TS scores for heavy rain,rainstorm,and torrential rain increased by 11%,126%,and 267%,respectively.Concurrently,forecast hit rates improved markedly—reaching 45.5%,20%,and 8%,for heavy rain,rainstorm,and torrential rain,respectively—while false negative rates decreased to 54.5%,80%,and 92%.In addition,false positive rates for heavy rain and torrential rain declined to 50.5%and 84.5%,respectively.The bias scores also approached unity,indicating a significant reduction in systematic forecast bias.Overall,the results confirm that the proposed terrain correction method effectively enhances the accuracy and reliability of global numerical precipita-tion forecasts in regions of complex topography.This approach provides valuable technical support for improving operational weather forecasting over the plateau—basin transitional zones of Southwest China.关键词
高原过渡带/地形订正/全球数值预报模式/检验评估Key words
plateau transitional zone/terrain data adjustment/global numerical prediction model/verification and assessment引用本文复制引用
牛金龙,黄楚惠,陈朝平,肖递祥,文锐..基于ECMWF模式降水预报的地形订正方法在川西高原东坡过渡带的应用评估[J].大气科学学报,2026,49(2):349-358,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000905) （2021YFC3000905）
四川省科技计划重点研发专项(2022YFS0542) （2022YFS0542）
四川省自然科学基金项目(2023NSFSC0242 （）
22NSFSC0774) （）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z33 （）
CXFZ2021J27) （）
四川省气象局研究型业务面上项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202113 （）
SCQXKJZD202101) （）
四川省气象局智能网格预报创新团队项目 （）
川西南(雅安)暴雨实验室2024年度科技发展基金项目(CXNBYSYSYWZD20240) （雅安）
