生态学报2026，Vol.46Issue(6)：3279-3295,17.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202506101453
中国畜牧业碳排放动态演化、区域差异及异质性影响因素
Spatial-temporal evolution,regional difference and heterogeneity influencing factors of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in China
摘要
Abstract
Carbon emission reduction in animal husbandry not only played a direct role in alleviating global warming,but also played a key role in protecting the ecological environment and promoting the transformation of animal husbandry to green and low carbon,and also provided important support for realizing the goal of"double carbon"(carbon peak and carbon neutrality)in China.Promoting carbon emission reduction in animal husbandry was not only the inherent requirement for the high-quality development of the industry,but also an important path to realizing global climate control and ecological civilization construction.This paper calculated livestock carbon emissions across China's 31 provinces from 2005 to 2022,and analyzed the dynamic characteristics,regional differences and influencing factors of livestock carbon emissions in China using the Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation and the STIRPAT-GTWR model,aiming to provide targeted recommendations and measures for carbon reduction and green low-carbon development in animal husbandry.The results showed that:① The carbon emissions of animal husbandry in China generally decreased,but the total amount remained at a high level,and the situation of carbon emission reduction continued to be grim.From the regional point of view,except the northwest region,the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in other regions of China were fluctuating and declining.② The carbon emissions of animal husbandry in China showed a spatial distribution pattern of"high in the west and low in the east",and the areas with higher carbon emissions from animal husbandry were mainly concentrated in the central and western regions of China,which was closely related to the geographical pattern of animal husbandry production in China.In addition,the kernel density of carbon emissions of animal husbandry in China and its six regions exhibited an evolutionary trend of"from differentiation to convergence,from high concentration to balance".③There were regional differences in carbon emissions from animal husbandry in China,with the largest difference observed in North China,followed by East China and Central South China,and the smallest in Northeast China.Hypervariable density was the main source of the overall difference in the early stage of the study,and the contribution rate of the differences between groups gradually increased in the late stage,which together with hypervariable density became the main reason for the expansion of the overall difference in carbon emissions of animal husbandry in China.④ Economic level,population size,livestock carbon emission intensity,agriculture and industrial structure exerted significant positive effects on livestock carbon emissions,and the spatiotemporal trends and magnitudes of influence varied considerably across these factors,demonstrating pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity.关键词
畜牧业/碳排放/核密度估计/Dagum基尼系数/STIRPAT-GTWR模型Key words
animal husbandry/carbon emissions/kernel density estimation/Dagum Gini coefficient/STIRPAT-GTWR model引用本文复制引用
李素娟,张群雪,侍笑嫣,叶芳,马奇飞..中国畜牧业碳排放动态演化、区域差异及异质性影响因素[J].生态学报,2026,46(6):3279-3295,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42506239) （42506239）
浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划项目(2023QN086) （2023QN086）
浙江省省属高校基本科研业务费专项(2023Y003) （2023Y003）
浙江省教育科学规划项目(2025SCG270) （2025SCG270）
